The Dominion. SATURDAY, JULY 29, 1911. THE MOROCCAN AFFAIR.

Dominion, Volume 4, Issue 1192, 29 July 1911, Page 4

The Dominion. SATURDAY, JULY 29, 1911. THE MOROCCAN AFFAIR.

During the past week the news respecting tho difficulties that have 'arisen out of Germany's sudden intervention in Morocco has taken a dark and ominous tinge, but no cautious observer would dream of making up his mind to any bolder conclusion than that, whether or not it is probable, war is certainly possible. Mr. Lloyd-George's significant declaration—tho European press comments show that it was an exceedingly emphatic one—that Britain would .not allow herself to be. treated as if of no account in the Cabinet of the nations produced just that effect in Europe which would be expected of a friendly reminder to i France of the concern she is rc- ' quired to show for the safeguarding of British interests. It was hardly a warning to Germany; for Germany requires no warning of the British view. It has been followed by angry protests in the inspired German press and by satisfactory assurances of the firmness of the Anglo-French entente. So far, however, has it been from proving the moderating inlluenco upon Germany that was predicted of it that iho shipping insurance rates at Lloyds' and the price of Consols have reflected a deep uneasiness in commercial circles. I'liu fact that various shipping cnVnern have taken steps to cover themselves against the risk of war docs not signify more than that British shipping is as sensitive of risk as ever. It is fur more important that Li.ovdh' tihoukl give a fortnight's notice that shipowners on insuring will have to tn,ke out a special war risk. Consols fell suddenly to £77 155., but there has been a slight rally; and German bonds and French ltenl.es have reflected the general uneasiness. The danger, nevertheless, may easily be over-esti-mated, and serious attention need not be paid to that very "warm"looking cable message of" yesterday that related that Mn. M'Kenxa, M. Camijon", and Loiid Kitcheneii had visited tin; foreign ollicc. Where there in Kitchunuh there is war is not tlie axiom that it may bo accounted, and in the present instance what is more natural than that the newly-appointed representative of Britain in Egypt should frequently visit Hni Edward Grey?

To-day wo arc told that the Germ;tn newspapers liavo become "incioji.sirigly truculent," in their comments, and that the Color/nc Gazelle in parl.icu l.'ir, which is reputed to 1)0 the public voice o£ German diplomacy, has warned Britain am] France In "beware." Simultaneously w<! are told I hat the Emperor'of Oniiiiiiy has curtailed his Norwegian cruise and we are furnish"d wild a summary of Mr. Asquith's statement that does not greatly help a favourable view of the outlook. War is not, of course, "unthinkable" ; but the greatest probability is that the whole Moroccan question will bo re-submitted to an international conference for settlement,

This is perhaps what Gormany lias been aiming at. The suggestion was long ago made that Spain's sudden arid utterly unwarrantable occupation of Alcazar was inspired by Germany in order that Frarcc an.l Spain should ba forced into a dispute that would furnish Germany with almost a moral right to take \U turn in giving the spirit of the Algcciras Act another , pulverising blow. If the suggestion is founded on fact, German diplomacy seems to he in a fair way towards scoring another triumph. In any re-settlement she cannot lose any of the advantages allotted to her under the Algeciras Act, and she might gain. What must have struck many people during the discussions of the past few weeks is the absence of any indication that European opinion has been much influenced by the new spirit of international arbitration. Not many weeks ago there appeared to exist good excuse for anybody who might have chosen to say that no war-cloud could gather over Mo- ] roe'eo. Without premeditation or arrangement everybody has simply forgotten about arbitration altogether. It may turn out that the actual risk of war has never troubled the diplomatists in their secret negotiations; but that in no way lessens the significance of the fact that war has been shown to exist in the minds of all as a perfectly natural possibility in the affairs of nations. Nobody of any consequence, cither in Britain or .Europe, seems to have thought, and much less to have said, that the new spirit of peace, the new disgust of war, would play any part whatever in the direction of events. Mr. Ramsay Macdonald's statement upon the attitude of Labour does not contradict this fact. This does not tell, however, against the prospects of great success for the movement towards specific arbitration treaties. The prime lesson of, the affair is that Germany is the enemy of European peace. Her needs are such, and her traditions arc such, that she can never be satisfied with the status quo. While she cherishes the policy of aggressive expansion she must remain outside the charmed circle of peace-making alliances.