The Dominion. SATURDAY, MAY 13, 1911. A DANGER SPOT.

Dominion, Volume 4, Issue 1126, 13 May 1911, Page 4

The Dominion.

SATURDAY, MAY 13, 1911.

A DANGER SPOT.

Turkey afc the present moment possesses an importance among European Powers out of all proportion to the condition of her people, her wealth, and her naval and military forces. Her geographical position explains, in the main, the profound interest taken in her affairs by neighbouring chancelleries. The Young Turks.have abstained from exhibiting signs of any decisive policy, and tney nave displayed no strong preference for the iriendship of any particular Power. Germany was in high favour with Abdul Hamid, but when he was deposed the Young Turks turned more to Great Britain. Probably they were in doubt for a time as to the attitude Germany would assume towards the removal from power of the Kaiser's friend. The German Ambassador to the Sublime Porte is able and astute, and it would seem that he has succeeded in convincing thp Young Turks that, though Abdul has disappeared from the scene, Germany's friendship remains unaltered. Sir Gerard Lowther, the British Ambassador, is; not a Stratford de Red-' cliffe—who, Lord Morley reminds us, "possessed almost sovereign ascendancy at the Porte"—but no one doubts his great capacity as a diplomatist and a statesman. Sections of' the European Press are fond of dwelling upon Germany's diplomatic victories at Constantinople, all at the expense of Great Britain; but to the present time the world is_ without any concrete example of' those remarkable successes. As far as^ Turkey isconcerned the Bagdad railway threatens to become a heavy financial burden, a burden which Turkey afc the present time is scarcely prepared to bear. The so-called kilometric guarantees, in reality an annual subsidy, demanded nearly a quarter of a million sterling in 1909, and that for a railway only 645 miles in length. Turkey doubtless contemplates with mixed feelings Germany's extension of the line towards Bagdad and the Persian Gulf and the heavy subventions which that extension will entail. Turkey will benefit to no great extent by the railway even though it be carried forward to Bagdad. Few contend that, commercially, the line will he successful. It is to be, primarily, the political and the strategic, or, better still, the diplomatic railway of Germany. German politicians and writers, of a class, have built an amazing superstructure of foreign policy and of prospective aggrandisement for the Fatherland on the basis of this somewhat doubtful Bagdad railway. Once that undertaking is finished, Great Britain, it would appear, may there-

by be mortally wounded. Dii. Roiineach—a familiar figure in German political life—has visited Asia Minor four times, and has written a monograph on the impoitance of the Bagdad railway to Germany. Provided that Turkey and Germany co-operated, the railway would enable German and Turkish troops to attack Egypt, for Egypt, he states, is the only vulnerable spot where Great Britain may bo attacked by land. "Egypt, , proccceds Dk. RohrbaCH, "is a prize which for Turkey would bo well worth the risk of taking sides with Germany in a war with England. The policy of protecting Turkey, which is ' now pursued by Germany, has no other object but the desire to effect an insurance against the danger of a war with England." What authority this writer possesses for his explicit statement of German policy has not been made known. We attach no great importance to writers of the Hohkbacu type, though recognising that, in Germany, he and his kind arc frequently utilised for giving utterance to official ideas, and for , the raising of questions upon which the Government desires to know the mind of the public. In this, instance, it may be that his statement of German policy is true. All the same, , such a policy as this cannot be considered as coming within the domain of the possible and the practical. But a fraction of the railway is completed : Turkey is not likely to cast overboard the almost historic friendship of England. The invasion of Egypt by land will not be liable to happen for many years to come. Further, this outlining by German writers of their country's future doings invariably leaves out of consideration the obvious fact that British policy is quite capable of keeping pace with the German.

Turkey, in all probability, will overcome the many serious difficulties with which, at the present time, she is beset. But many observers, whose opinions cannot , bo thrown lightly aside, have grare fears for Hie future. The Committee of Union and Progress is divided: the Empire, which is a compost of Irelands, is unsettled, dissatisfied, and rebellious; Among the different races within the Empire the one bond of union found is, too often, mere hatred of the Turks. Albanians, Arabs, Armenians, Bulgarians, and Greeks demand Home Paile. The coup d'etat which ended the rule of Abdul Hamid was skilfully managed. How soon may another master-stroke bring change, or revolution, or even anarchy? And should anarchy arise, which among tho Powers will stir to provest thi Turkish Empire going to pieces Turkey is now uv aav cxcondition, sorely in need of rest and recuperation. Germany's advice to subsidise political railways, revive her navy and strengthen her army, she would be wise to reject. The development of the counMγ «\<£ tfa $mfy«i?, of tfa should be tho first objects of the Turkish Government. Turkey, it has been well said, requires not sabres but schools. An entrancing volume of travel in Arabia has recently been published, Amurath to Amurath. The work presents striking pictures of life in the eastern portions of the Turkish Empire, and speaks oi the people's longing for peare and freedom. They were raided by hostile tribes: harried by the tax-gatherers of the Sultan. . When the news arrived that a new order had been established on fche Bosphorus, high were the hopes that were created. Great confidence, the author states, was placed in the Young Turks, everyone, except the officials, being in favour of the Dastur, or Constitution. No indications of a spirit approaching that of rebellion were observed by the author. The future of Turkey depends upon two circumstances: the policy adopted by thn Porte, and the loyalty and obedience of Turkey's mixed races. If the Government has peace, and applies itself to domestic reforms, the Empire is safe. If a warlike policy be followed, the future of Turkey is dark and uncertain, and others than Turkey may become involved. ■