JAPAN'S FUTURE.

Dominion, Volume 4, Issue 1013, 31 December 1910, Page 15

JAPAN'S FUTURE.

—. —« —-— DESTINY AND THE PACIFIC ISLANDS. AN AMERICAN VIEW. . Most of those interested in tlic expansion of Japan arc proms to regard her destiny as inevitably . northwards . - (writes tho Tokio correspondent of tho Now York "Post",), as. this view seems to thom the only one consistent with tho history and traditions of the race. Japan s present aggression in Korea, and Manchuria they believe to bo- an indication that the movement in tiiis direction, has already set in; for, theism no reason to' hold that tho timo will ever conio when Japan will relinquish. tho advantages she has gained .on tho Continent of East Asia. Nor can it .bo denied that there are numerous expressions of Japanese ambition tending to confirm this conviction. It must, nevertheless, bo apparent to any ono familiar with tho racial evolution natural circumstances- of tho Japanese that there are good reasons for aouoting tho assumption that tho fu- : ,p°l Ja P a .» lies further north: l-hero arc increasing numbers of Japanese, especially among tho moro intelligent classes, .who aro -disposed to belioyo - that a timo will, como wlien Japan will seo tliat she can como to ler own only by turning her faco southwards. Tho innate, characteristics, of tnc Japanese race are opposed to northerly latitudes, and nature is more mighty than ambition. Thero is good ' reason\to believe tljat tho time is not far distant when to Japan tlio call of ancestry will prove louder than tho call of tho north.The blood of the tropics is 111 the veins of tlio Japanese, and they will bo permanently happv in no other clime. Lands like California, Ha;wau, and' northern Australia allure them, but not the frigid and desolate legions of -Manchuria and tho north, i'or sears Japan has been endeayouriii"to colonise tho northern island of Hokkaido, but with very indifferent results. I havo never > known a Jaoaneso who thought it a good thing to five in Hole-, karao., :A> 'Formosa," Hawaii, aiid 'tils' islands of the Southern Pacific tlioy migrate freely,' and in that. direction { ace or the whole nation will ultimately, turn., .. CIRCUMSTANCES MAY AID THE TURN It is., a question whether at no distant period circumstances will not coincide with.Nature,in turning the drift of Japanese immigration and" ambition in a ! southerly direction.-T'lio Japanese arp beginning.. to realise that turther .expansion northwards is. hardly possible without- international' collision. , To e»sui:o. permp.nonco 'of jvossession ivould-entail a long and bloody conflict ,mth China and Russia,-not'to s jy pliytliing of the probablo opposition of Western. Powers. There is little' .prospect for, the Japanese immigrant- in Manchuria and Korea. His only hope is the extermination of tlio native, with whom he finds it,impossible.to' competo 111 agricultural pursuits. Somo believo this is being attempted in Korea; but no Olio thinks a scheme so inhuman is practicable.

In Manchuri» ; Japan's, only , prospect's are commercial; but in this respect that region, offers no better mafkot for 110 output of. Japanese industry than the other great provinces of 'China, lasso circumstances, -accentuated- by the growing apprehension that increasing interests in China aro suro to mako trouble lor the nation, suggest to a :{rgo number of Japanese the-advisa-bility of turning the nation's, attention south for its inheritance/^ Indeed,vjapan jnayhe driven-.to this, convict-ion.-- ' Her. population is"increas-' m 5,. too rate -of: moro :than: - half 'a million a'year; ahd unless' there is to be congestion, the nation must expand in some direction. ' It- seems pretty eercam that 'this expansion cannot, co on northwards. And wlicn the northerly races combine to force Japan southwards they will bo bound' to give ncr roqih-to movo. in that direction. Ino only alternative would bo extermination wh'ich,is unthinkable to., modern civilisation/. Wisely enough, some . ? nioro: thoughtful of Japanese publicists' arci; beginning to think it 'hotter not to wait for such contingency, hut to set the national drift southwards as soon as:'possible, and. in a peaceable and natural manner. 1 PACIFIC • ISLANDS A NATURAL HOME. ' The islands, of tho. Pacific,'tho ancestral homo, of the ' Japanese,* are, comparatively speaking, a -vast undeveloped territory. They - arc at'present being exploited by tho white races, who carry .away the. wealth, while .nature, tries to get even by preying on the intruders. Theso regions aro inimical to tlio health and morals of tho white races. The obstacles nature put 3in ■tho:way of the white man in 'theso tropical regions aro implacable.' Ho invariably degenerates in theso latitudes, ilio- Japanese, on tho other hand, .tlirivo m hot regions, even better than in the temperate zones. Who that has tor any length of time heen accustomed to Japanese civilisation, does not readily. .belicvo.it far more adapted to a southern than to a northern people? -Tho Japanese dislikes to cover,his body with clot-hmg, oven in winter. Today, after centuries of experience in a land of severo winter, his little shell hut and general manner of . living aro 5; ®? rry PfotMiiciv fr oiu tho ills which winter brings. Ho is not a man of meat, but of fruit and vegetables. Tho hot Japanese summer is tho only timo when ho is really in his element. iiJj mr • 0 Borneo, Sumatra, the Philippines,, and districts like Nortli Australia, places which tho white races neither hko nor. thrive in, are capable or supporting an immense population of Japanese. Emigration in this direction' is immeasurably more important to' Japan than sending her people to Korea or Manchuria, or even t-o the United States and Canada; and tho . possession of these territories would be incomparably moro -'valuable to Japan than tho.r aro now to tho whito races, or than Korea and Manchuria aro or will bo to Japan.

WHY JAPAN LOOKS TO SOUTH. The question, however, naturally arises whether Japanese expansion in a southerly direction would not as likely lead to collision as tho present move■nent towards the north. From expressions of opinion among the Japanese wo may conclude that thev themselves are not disposed to think so, for tno reason that expansion in a southerly direction need not be other than popular; agricultural, industrial, and commercial. Japan has 110 desire to risk conflict with any of. the white laces now-_ politically and territorially interested 111 the islands of iho south tiif Ihili PfO"? to believe that the white races will in timo to como ,sce ho inhumanity of killing off the r surplus population by sending it to the .trop.es, and that these regions ran ho Jar more easily and economically' developed by encouraging Japanese 'immigration'. " Japan will; therefore, have 110 political or territorial ambitions in the south i unless she has to in order to relievo congestion of population. She would probably not bo surprised to see tile time arrive when the white owners of these Pacific islands would find it more convenient to dispose of'them to Japan than to enter upon the almost'impossible endeavour to:keep Japanese, immigration out of the "West. If tho white races insist upon remaining white, thev will be in dirty bound to'leave tho yellow races room for expansion in some other direction. Japan will never he content to see the white man ant the. dog m tho manger. He must fill op'

tho tropics or permit Japan to people them. Tho island of Java, if properly developed, is capable of supplying the worldwith sugar. EYE ON THE PHILIPPINES. Iho Japanese regard the Philippines as far more adapted to a Japanese population than to an American, and it may bo said that the American occupation of these islands is lolied upon universally bv tlio Japaneso as a mistake. To sell these, islands t-o Japan bo a much more profitable transaction than trying to keep tho Japanese out of California. Indeed, this might bo tlio only condition of a -peaceable retention of tho Hawaiian islands, where the Japanese population'already so f_r .outnumbers the white than in caso of conflict between America.' and Japan the Japanese' population' could in no time overwhelm tho whito population. He who doubts such a possibility, does not know tlio initiative capacity and forco of tho Japaneso as a fighter. Japan has now reached a position of independence, and is just beginning to realise' her power. Her distanco from tho West gives her an immense advantage over, any Occidental power attempting to interfere with Japanese ambition or policy. That her power is in every way sure to increase and spread in the East is to be taken for granted.