The Dominion. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 10, 1910. POSSIBILITIES IN BRITISH POLITICS.

Dominion, Volume 4, Issue 996, 10 December 1910, Page 4

The Dominion. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 10, 1910. POSSIBILITIES IN BRITISH POLITICS.

. Now that the British election has progressed to a point from which it is'possible to see the rough shape of the final result, it is time to think upon tha events that will follow the rp-assembling of Parliament. During the last Parliament Me. Asquith was dependent upon the Irish vote; but not upon the Labour vote; without the' Irish, vote, that is to say, the Liberal-Labour combination was less than a majority of tho House; while the Liberal-Nationalist coalition made a majority quite apart from Labour. With a majority of , _ 20, when 408 seats are decided, tho triple alliance cannot expect a majority anything like so large as it had before. If the Labour party comes, back 40 strong, the Government, unless its..composite majority exceeds 80, will bo as much at the mercy of the Labour party'as of the Redrriondifces. It was bad enough for Me.. Asquith, and dolorous enough for moderate Liberals, when Me. Redmond held the balance of power, but it is infinitely worse when—as appears quite probable—there are two groups separately and independently capable of cutting the thread of the Government's life. Were it not that a serious crisis will arise almost immediately,, wo should bo able to look forward .with as. much interest as alarm to the working of the House of Commons under ' such abnormal and undesirable _ conditions. The immediate question, however, is: What will the Lords do with the Parliament BilH To many, people it will "eem incredible that they will not accept it, but we think that anything is more credible than that the Lords will agreo to the establishment of Single-Chamber government. . When the Liberals took office in 1906 they had a.majority, with the assistance of the Labour and Nationalist parties, of 354. The appeal to the electorate in January last, although the Liberals used all the energy and eloquence of agonised passion, resulted in the reduction of this enormous majority by 230. The triple alliance could only,muster a majority of 124. It cannot be .wondered at that the cold chill cast b : y these figures upon the revolutionary proposals , of the Government was considered by the Peers a sufficient warrant for regarding the result as a mandate for the reform of their House, but not for the practical abolition of it. Had the Peers misread the signs, the people would assuredly have set themselves to express their opinion with an emphasis that not even prejudice could mistake. The Liberals have claimed that in defying the result of the January election the House of Lords had committed a monstrous act of insolence and tyranny—an act that tho utmost resources of .the,hero of Limehouso were called on to properly characterise. The public was represented as hungering fe-r an opportunity to sweep the Unionists and the Peers into oblivion, and certain members of the Government left unsaid nothing that might serve-to in-' flame- the people's wrath to the,highest pitch. .And what is the result? We can'only guess roughly what the final result may be, but the passionate people—burping with enthusiasm against tho Unionists, eager to melt all the coronets in the Kingdom, with hearts aflame with love for Me. Lloyd-George—have simply cut down still further tho majority of .their dear friends and protectors. Tho attitude of the people towards tho Liberals has been something like the attitude of the walrus towards the oysters: " "I woen for you," the walrus said, "I deeply sympathise'"; With sobs and tears he sorted out Those of the largest size, Holding his pocket-handkerchief Before his streaming eyes. With a still further reduction of the composite majority of the Government, it will not be difficult for the Peers to show that the case for the referendum can no longer be sot aside. Exactly how little the Irish support of the Parliament Bill can count wherever there is a high constitutional responsibility will become clear on a little examination. Lot us suppose that the Government obtained a majority of 80, and that the Peers pas's t-be Parliament Bill unamended. ' The first proposal, of •the Government must then be o, Home Eule Bill, and the National-

ists will cross St. George's Channel, and disappear from British politics. What havo they left behind them,? Looking back, tho Nationalists will say: "In a way, wo are a little sorry fov you people, "We have really no objection to the Houso of Lords. Indeed, we are rather conservative in our way of thinking of such things, and we should gladly see the powers of the House restored to it. Our own opinion is that Britain requires a strong and independent Second Chamber. But what would you? We had to have Home Rule, and, as we could not get it without destroying your revising Chamber, your revising Chamber had to go. It was really like burning down the house had to have Home Rule, and, as wo sorry that so desperate a step was necessary. But we must now attend to our own business, and you must therefore excuse us. At the same time, since you appear—the majority of you—to want your Houso restored, we wish you good luck." That is a perfectly reasonable picture of the position. If they could obtain Home Rule, the Irish votes would not count, as they would not be cast, for the Parliament Bill. Is it unreasonable to suppose that the Constitution will be protected against destruction through an accidental and really irrelevant situation in respect of one question . The British voter, when next appealed to, will not find it difficult to understand that the Liberals are asking his support for the proposition that the Nationalists shall destroy tho Upper Houso in order to get out of Westminster.

In view of all these considerations, it is highly probable that one of two courses will bo adopted. Tho first is tho summoning of another Conference for tho settlement of the Irish question, and this is a possibility to which many events have been leading. It is certainly the solution of tho difficulty that the overseas Empire . would be most ready to approve. Unfortunately, the temperature of tho situation will probably be too high for an all-round display of passionless statesmanship. We may expect Mr. Asquitk to ■ bring on his Parliament Bill again, and the House of Lords to accept it with certain amendments, one of which will be a clause providing that the Bill shall not become law until it has been referred to a specific poll of the people. The Government will not be disposed to accept, this amendment, but it will have to bear the onus of explaining to the people why it is unwilling to trust them, and the people are plainly continuing to repent, of their decision of 1906. Me. Redmond may bo trusted lo keep Me. Asquith up to the mark, and it would therefore seem that another early election is inevitable. The public will then be move strongly inclined than ever to complete.its demolition of the Liberal majority, for nothing will avail to prevent the ejectors from realising that the continued confusion and chaos is due to the Nationalist demand that the House- of Lords must be destroyed for ;tho"sake of ■Home Rule. ■■ One thing is perfectly clear: that the ferment cannot subside for two or three .years. '.