The Dominion. TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 1910. GERMANY'S AMBITIONS.

Dominion, Volume 3, Issue 920, 13 September 1910, Page 4

The Dominion. TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 1910. GERMANY'S AMBITIONS.

Naval and Military developments in Germany recorded in recent cable messages give point to an interesting article published in the Quarterly Review discussing the material progress of the German Empire and forecasting the trend of Hohenzollern ambitions. The growth ,of population, it is submitted, is the main incentive to German development; it is increasing.at the rate of 1,000,000 per year and now stands approximately at 65,000,000.; In 1921 it is estimated the population will-reach 75,000,000. These figures gain-significance from the fact that emigration is now a negligible factor. From 1881 to 1885 an annual average of 171,000 Germans left their native shores; since then the number has steadily declined and the year. 1908; witnessed,the departure, of only 19,883. The growth of population is therefore a formidable problem, a problem gravely accentuated by the fact that the popula-. tiori is in transition from agricultural to industrial pursuits. The necessity_ for the' creation of fresh markets is becoming accentuated, for Germany, must depend more and more on her foreign trade; and this is, the issue that is destined to' affect very' seriously Anglo-German relations ;during the next decade.' The expansion of Germany's commerce reflects the growth of her.productive 'capacity; and the, . rapid development of the iron and steel industries may be regarded as a safe standard in calculating progress in other directions and of the extraordinary thoroughness of the methods eni-' ployed. The exports of iron rose from, 1,548,000 tons in 1900 to 3,732,000 tons in 1908,. or an. increase .of 145 per cent in eight years. This is the more noteworthy when it is understood that some hundreds of miles .'separate the iron ore deposits from the coal mines (in the United States arid Great Britain they ; are contiguous) '. and, j>hat the 'manufacturing plants are considerable distance from the sea-board.

, The success of German manufacturers is not'due. to -the fact .'that they produce more cheaply* but may be attributed in a large,measure'to the perfection of their organisation; The growth of the mercantile; marine is in,the same ratio..; The'use. Germany makes of her waterways for purposes, of.--..transportation is in striking contrast to'the policy of other countries where the railway has almost entirely superseded carriage by water. In 1903 Germany possessed .rivers;- canals, and other natural waterways with an aggregate length of; 8800 miles. The,num-ber-of vessels engaged in inland navigation-. "was 25,000," with. an aggregate 'tonnage.of 4,900,000. Up to the ond; of .1906. the, State had expended upon the' improvement of the carrying capacity of natural sum- of £13,181,000, and a similar siim for the construction' of ;canarsv-' , The estimated .expenditure on /new works of -a, similar nature, is : £16,-700,000, :: - a total■'.of£43io62,poo.. This phase of Germanenterprise is .still more;emphasised by the fact that, the waterways'.- cooperate with-the,railways; competition between them is unknown: it is admitted that it is to the advantage of the. railways that certain classes; of goods should be carried by water. The railways play an important part in the development of. the - German .Empire. .The: statistics; are of- '.a nature to arrest the attention and

command the admiration 'of political "• economists. •.'.-.■ The Quarterly Review article says: ■■." .:;.', .;.'■•-'■... Over'4o years ago Bismarck determined upon the nationalisation of the railways, and : at the .present; time ,95 per cent, of the railways are in the hands of : the State. Bismarck's objects were to consolidate the Empire; to strengthen .its military position by .facilitating the. construction of strategical •' lines,. and E lacing the control of the railways in the ands of the State; to provide an important source of . revenue which should be outside Parliamentary control; and,, finally, to. facilitate the economic development of the Empire. . '.'•'■.'■ For the x year 1907 the gross earnings of all the-German railways. amounted to .£137,250,000, the working expenses to ,£91,700,000, and the. net earnings to .£42,sso,ooo,'equivalent to 5.00 per cent of the capital.'outlay. The important part which the earnings'from the railways play in the State finances may be gathered from the.fact that out :of their earnings for the "year 1907 the sum- of i£30,000,000 was. available for the general purposes, of the .State, .this amount being equal tp more than twico the sum yielded by the income 'and .property'tax of .the.year and that.'since'-1882 the total surplus earned by the- railways is about 4280,000,000, the bulk of which has been applied to the general purposes of tho Stato. ."!

The State''railways are therefore' exploited.as a_ principal source v of revenue and this in spite of generous rebates on German manufactures to foreign frontiers. The financial position of Germany is nevertheless a complex and anomalous one and suggests that her domestic and; foreign policy must for a considerable time to come be: dictated withthe profoundest caution. Economic development has outpaced the accu-' mulation of capital; credit is more costly in Berlin than in almost any other of the great financial centres of Europe, and in consequence Germany has had to depend upon other countries—principally England and France—for a largo part of the capital required' to finance her trade. Vast sums of capital from these two countries are sunk in Germany, attracted by the high rates of in-, terest' "offered, and there is good reason to believe that a large proportion of this capital, is being used to finance foreign trade and that, too; in competition with the two' great lending countries. A'- recent estimate places the total value of German investments abroad at about £1,500,000,000, a sum' equivalent to nearly one-half of the estimated value of the foreign and colonial investments of England. We quote the -earnest words with which the Quarterly Review writer concludes his article:

Tho general conclusion to be arrived at from a 6urvey of the economic position of Germany is that it is a matter of. the gravest concern for Great Britain that an Empire so rich in material wealth, in population, and all that contributes to tho. making of a great world Powor should have set herself deliberately to the acquisition of a fleet of such strength that even for the mightiest naval Power a "war with her would involvo such risks as' to jeopardise . its own •■• supremacy. Germany is rapidly accomplishing the purpose set out in the prenmblo of her Navy Bill of J9OO, and it has not weakened her military position, nor has it crippled her national finances. She attained the position of second naval Power in ft comparatively easy manner j she may. be induced to go further, The

only policy for Great Britain, therefore, is a.vast permanent increase in the naval expenditure. In . proportion to national wealth and the national income, it cannot l)o maintained that, in comparison with the great Powers of . Continental Europe, Great Britain is over-taxed" in the matter of expenditure on armaments; and any hesitation now to realise the gravity of the financial conflict which is being forced.upon us may ultimately involve the British Empire and the world in'incalculable' disasters..