EUROPEAN POLITICS.

Dominion, Volume 3, Issue 796, 20 April 1910, Page 3

EUROPEAN POLITICS.

WHERE'IS THE DANGEE? "European politics have drifted into a back-water in which it is possible to enjoy the calm and collect one's thoughts," says the "Spectator." 'It is a very different state of affairs from a year ago, when all the sluices were open, the tide of events was sweeping along at terrific speed, and tho interests of Europe, involving issues of peace and war, were being swept forward to one knew not what destiny. Events, in fact, have composed themselves much more favourably than anyone dared to hope when Austria-Hungary tore up tho Treaty of Berlin, and denounced tho pub.ic law of Europe. ' What are the reasons of- the stillness which w# ' are now enjoying, and how can we ensure its continuance?

To some extent we ought to give credit to the ordinary workings of human nature. Count Achrenthal mado a gambler's throw and brought off his .coup, but even while he was raking in his winnings he must have recognised the magnitude of the forces which ho had brought into play, and the intensity of the ruin he would have called down on himself and all Europe if ho had failed. For the. time being, then, ho may be regarded as a man who is sobered by .experience "Where, then, is the danger? For, of course, there is plenty of danger, even though it be hidden. None of tho Great Powers has the slightest immediate pretext for disturbing the peace, but some of the small Powers are in a state of continual and almost incurable dissatisfaction. It may be said that if ono of the smaller Powers provoked a war ; she could not ultimately do much harm, because when the combatants lay panting on the ground after the struggle the Great Powers would intervene and readjust the balance,. as they did after the .Treaty of San Stefano, after the war between China and Japan, and again after the war between Greece and Turkey. "That sounds very well in theory, but the correcting of the balance would give any of the Great Powers which considered itself to have. legitimate claims to' new territory or influence the very pretext it desired for asserting them. We must not forget that Germany not unnaturally considers herself to have been forced into a position of undeserved disadvantage. She feels that 6he has come upon the, scene too late in- the history of the world to build up an Empire commensurate with her abilities to hold and to govern, and she regards every proposal to render the status quo permanent as a disingenuous soheme. "Bulgaria, Servia,' and Greece are the ohief of the smaller Powers which entertain a flattering but dangerous conviction that a great future awaits them. In the spring, as soon as the snows melt from' the Balkan highlands, their fancy lightly turns, to thoughts of war. The eternal Macedonian question is by no means settled.

"The ambition of every Christian State in the Balkans has for a Jang time boen based on the expectation of the break-up of Turkey. Instead of. breaking up, Turkey is now making a splendid effort to recover her strength and virtue. Wo sincerely hope that she will succeed; but we have to admit that if she does the cup will be dashed away for ever from the mouth of people who believed' that they were just about to drink the sweet waters. Need we say, then, that the chief peril is that one or lmre of the'neighbours of Turkey may be'induced to. strike before the Toting Tuvks have had time to reorganise and re-equip their gallant but' tattered army?"