The Dominion. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 1909. THE AMERICAN OUTLOOK.

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 439, 23 February 1909, Page 6

The Dominion. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 1909. THE AMERICAN OUTLOOK.

An interesting observation upon tho financial and commercial outlook in tho United States made by the Presidentelect was printed in our cable news yesterday. The public has not yet forgotten the effects' upon this country of tho American financial disturbances in 1007, nor the astounding attitude taken up by the Prime Minister, who risked his reputation so far as to say that New Zealand was outside the zone of influence. Mn. Millar, in his speech at Dun-' edin on Friday evening, it may be mentioned in passing, flatly contradicted his chief on this point. In an exhaustive review of tho world's trade ill 1908, the London Times states tho elementary but vitally important axiom of commerco in these terms: "International trade is nowadaye so fluid that any wava of prosperity or depression in one country is rapidly communicated to all tho other countries which do business with it." It is impossible that Now Zealand can remain entirely unaffected by the financial and commercial conditions prevailing in America. The President-elect has announced that tha deficit for the current year will amount to £20,000,000, but he pointed out that "many business undertakings were only awaiting a revision of the tariff before .being pushed ahoad." He believes that "tho nonna,l increase which will take placo as a result of the settlement of the tariff will bo sufficient to meet the deficit which is now expected." There is fortunately good reason to believe that Mr. Taft will bo justified of his prediction.

In 1907 the severe financial depression in America, which produced its effects in New Zealand, was not accompanied by any slackening of industrial activity, That came in 190S t wken t despite tho

steady improvement'of the financial outlook, trade steadily declined until late in, the, year. The depression was most pronounced in. railroads business; • the gross earnings fell off enormously, dividends were reduced, 414,000 freight cars were idle in April. But the depression was severely felt also. in the dry goods trade and in the iron and ; steel industries. American impatience of this state or. affairs broko out. all over the country Pi r l ''T, Osperity Associations" and "Smile Clubs,"-, and the "prosperity: boomers" had -the satisfaction of seeing a turn of the tide in November. , The improvement coincided with the election of Me. Taft, and was perhaps partly duo to his victory, but the election was only the consummation of the progress towards a complete restoration of prosperity. The Times', review of the position, compiled at Christmas, reported that although'the November. "boom" had partly, subsided the year closed with "a hopeful but sober spirit pervading business, circles. Conditions form, a happy contrast to:a year ago," the writer continued, "and, prospects for 1909 are upon the whole encouraging. Little if any concern is felt about the money outlook. Trade and industry; are expected to ■ show a further revival, but it will be strange indeed if the recovery is; not .retarded by uncertainty over tariff changes, and if the'future undertakings are not held in abeyance more or less until that uncertainty is re;moved." Me. Taft is pledged to an early revision of the tariff, but it is impossible .to , forecast;the details of this revision.. Most-competent:observers, expect that, it wjll result in the transference of' many dutiable, articles to the free' list' ; while some free articles will be made dutiable. The ■.; financial necessities of the Federal government have, increased enormously; the expenditures, for this fiscal year, will aggregate' over ■ one thousand million dollars;;; The 1 first estimated- deficit for the current year,; 143,000,000Vdollars, is reduced, by the President-elect to 100,000,000 dollars.':;, v .. ..; ■'......'. '.."■:, .'-. .

: ;_ln the World's Work for January ; is given an enthusiastic account of '.'the re-turn,-of prospority" that.: began in November. -In; the first.week of that month' a spurt in railroad construction raised .the price of- copper: and sent thousands of" miners:back to. ; work,in the . mines.: 'Orders-for office-supplies, held up until the business .world was sure ; of itself, caused,,a rush of labqiir in .a'thousand' :shops.: : One big : ' adding-maohine: • company.; immediately placed its'five thousand men on.'fuil time." . :The National .Manufacturers';; Association > has, stated' that:6so,ooo mcn ; who have been idle will .presently find' work,. and- a conservative estimate the; incroase in the wages bill of the nation, at 1 ono million dollars a day. ;.The building trade leaped': forward by.-36por cent. ;.tho,big print cloth-millv from which men had beon laid off : by the: thousand, ;rosumod fuil-timb running; ;the : Westinghouse '/Air Brake /Company:\vhich, had 'been-running .'-for months on half-time, announced that it, would have : torun;fQr a .while on cloublo' time. 'The greatest impulse has come from'the railways,/ which'are the biggest buyers of Manufactured goods in the,Gountry. ''.'lnan endless chain, , moving' swiftly, or/slowly; as., tho: buyer ; ; wills; And,'the. railroad: is the. biggest buyer, mcasure-'asyone.-wili."'- Ohiefly.thb railways ,buy labour. : '■', .-. : With the ; . railways. bopmingi>the; tide "j&f '."prosperity floods . into; every, kind. of industrial ; channel. Already heads''are taking every: opportunity;to.warn' the: public that" ek-' trayagance:;will:make the revival of trade quite -useless.' The -outlook is -clearly. ?a' very;bright, one,' and, this: is pleasant news to NowjZealand. For not only, is our annual trade with America : a matter 0f:0ver.,£2,000,000 sterling, but our.comfort .is largely dependent upon the. financial, conditions abroad, and therofore, as everybody : Sir. Josepe.Ward in a measure upon', the. financial- condition :of the United 'States. ' ; That,westill ■ lipser ;ih the shade : of depression '.while America i's-comihg into-the full sunshinol .meroly indicates that', we-are: dependent also -. upon . pur: own; behaviour. ;as an economic.;community.'.: • ;'■':'.': ■ ; ... .