The Dominion. FRIDAY, DECEMBER 6, 1907. A PESSIMISTIC VIEW OF THE TRANSVAAL.

Dominion, Volume 1, Issue 62, 6 December 1907, Page 6

The Dominion. FRIDAY, DECEMBER 6, 1907. A PESSIMISTIC VIEW OF THE TRANSVAAL.

In this country we are so accustomed to view with distrust-the Rand Magnate and his alleged methods, and so ready to proclaim our detestation of the employment of Chinese 'labourers in the mines of the Transvaal, that we are liable to lose all sense of proportion in estimating the true position of affairs. For this reason it is wise to " hear the other side " occasionalty, even though the mouthpiece be avow-: edly a partisan one, and liable to the imputation. _ of interested motives. Only in this way can. those at a distance, who desire to gauge the position dispassionately, strike., that mean which will probably be-nearest to the, correct understanding of things as they are. In this connection Mr. Frederick Walker has been writing from Pretoria to the " Daily Mail," it is to be hoped in unduly pessimistic strain, . on the important question, " Will the Transvaal default?" and what he has to say is at least interesting and worthy of some consideration. Mr. Walker's name seems familiar as that of one who vigorously championed the introduction of the Chinese coolies at the , end of the war, holding then,,as did many others; that,,. objectionable as the scheme ; was on most grounds, it was the one and only thing to be done in the crisis to save South Africa from utter and speedy ruin. Incidentally also, Mr. Walker, or some one of the same name, showed himself at the same time to be most anxious to keep clean the reputation of the wealthy I mine owners. Granted all this, still, the article in the "Daily Mail" al- . luded to is of certain value as a pointer. i Mr. Walker commences by alluding ■ to Mr. Winston Churchill's justifica- ■ tion of the guarantee of the five million Transvaal Loan on the ground that i otherwise the Government of the Transvaal would have to go cap in hand to the mine magnates—in other words, would have had to consider the views of those controlling the one important industry of the country as to the adequate supply of cheap labour necessary to carry on and, develop that industry. This, he says, was a very serious declaration. "It means: (1) That the Government set up in this country by Sir Henry Campbell-Ban-nerman's ■ Ministry has not sufficient credit to raise even £5,000,000 on reasonable terms without assistance from either the Home Government or the mine magnates. (2) That it cannot carry on without borrowing at least £5,000,000. (3) That the Home Government is determined to encourage the Colonial Government to set at defiance those controlling the only considerable industry in the country, while borrowing money that can only be paid out of the pockets of those set at defiance." Then he adds: " In view of this position, it is most important to consider whether the local Government can, in the long run, set the, mine magnates at defiance." Mr. Walker proceeds to give tlie opinion of one of the ablest men in the Transvaal, who knew the Rand when it was bare veldt, to the effect that in his judgment the Transvaal will, within twelve months, be within a measurable distance, of bankruptcy, and that the ruin of the Rand mining industry will also bring within a measurable distance of bankruptcy the Cape Colony, Natal, and Orangia. His argument is, that development of the mines was not keeping pace with extraction, and that not only was the solvency of the Transvaal based on its one great asset, the mines, but that the debts of the other colonies were also based on the assumption that this great asset would be developed and made available as rapidly as possible. By taking away the Chinese labour, work 6n thousands of known payable claims has had to be held in abeyance, because no one. could be exjpected to open a newmminte t at a cost

of from £100,000, to £250,000, in reliance on the labour of Kaffirs, wlio were essentially lazy, who could not be coerced, and who only worked spasmodically and fitfully. Lord belborne is quoted as saying that the mining operations on the Hand had grown at so rapid a pace as to have outrun the available supply of rough labour, and as showing how it was that, when the gold was actually being got out of the mine, the proportion of unskilled labour required was much greater. A Boer notable is referred to as having assured Mr. Walker that, at the present time, no stable business of any magnitude could be based on Kaffir labour, the British having so pampered the natives that they were less reliable than ever. Then, the prospects of obtaining abundant and reliable Kaffir labour were not hopeful. At an indaba held at Maseru . by the Director of the Government ■ Native Labour Bureau recently, the chiefs who addressed the meeting held out for four months' contracts instead of six, as the natives objected to the latter; further, there was a great demand for labour at the diamond mines, ' and the natives preferred to work there ' to engaging for the gold mines. Mr. Walker then contends that it is impossible to "go slow" in the matter of the gold-mining industry owing to the indebtedness of the country, unless it is to face a default. Eightyfive per cent, of the taxes are paid by the Witwatersrand. The present,losses in shrinkage in market value ■of land and property are appalling. To " slow" would mean "that the big houses—the mining magnates—despairing of usefully employing- in this' country their fixed deposits, would withdraw them for employment in some other sphere, where the industry of. a nation is not ruined.to suit the unscrupulous wire-pullers of party politics," and this would precipitate a commercial crisis' throughout South Africa " that would shake to its foundations British influence south of the Zambesi.Unless, then, England.is prepared to go on ' guaranteeing more and more loans for the Transvaal, its Government, when it has spent this £5,000,000, will be compelled either to come to terms with the only industry strong enough to stand serious taxation, or to default on its public debt." This is Mr. Walker's case, but, being so obviously ■ written for a purpose, it may be taken for granted that the pos- ; ition, though serious enough, is not quite so had as it is made out to be. ,