ALL DEPENDS ON RUSSIA

Chronicle (Levin), 8 November 1947, Page 5

ALL DEPENDS ON RUSSIA

(N.Z.PJL.-

— Reuter

Hopes Not High For Success Of Meeting

. JConvriaht)

Received Friday, 7.U p.m. LONDON, Nov. The prospects oi the approaching meeting of the eouncil of i'our Foreign Ministers in London, is regarded pessimisticallv and the question is alread}' ' being asked, vvhat course will -Britain and United States — and possibly France — pursue if the conference breaks down. The British Foreign Office view is believed to be that Britain cannot alford to allow the present unsatisfactory position in Germany to continue any; longer and that if all other measures fail, Britain and the United States — argain with the problematical addition of France — niay be driven to the expedient of signing a separate jieace treaty with Western Germany. Reliable reports from the Anglo- American ! zones suggest that the much publicised German resentment at the dismantlement of factories and the strict limitation of industry, will not have serious repercussions. It has be6n played up to some extent by the German press but in general is being aceepted in a spirit of resignation. The course of the Foreign Ministers' conference niay ericourage the Germans to revive this agitatiojl but ' the British attitude is stated to be most unlikely to change. -Mr. Bevin is reported to hold firmly to the opinion that it is not for the Germans to dictate terms and that securitv against any revival of Germany 's power of aggression, must come first. With this tfie French most eniphatically agree though the Americans have reservations. The rock on which the conference is most likely to founder, however, is the form of the future administration of Germany. The Kussians are exiiected to adhere determinedly to their stand in tavour of a centrally controlled Germany whereas Britain, agam with modified American and French backing, believes that security will be best served by a Federal system in whieli the cliiei powers would lie with the Governments of the component German states. 8uch a system, it is argued, would prevent tlie creation of a strong German ceutral Government and be much more susceptiole to control by the AJlies. A suggestion widely canvassed at the moment is that the Russians are preparing a propaganda coup which will tane the form o± a proposal tiiat all four occupying Powers slxould agree ^imuitaneously to withdraw froiii Germany. If Britain, France auc^ the United btates refused to agree to this the Russians would then be able to eharge tliem with obstructing the liberation of Germany and so win substantial German support. Meanwhile, it is suggested that the Russians would hold strong forces in readiness to dominate any situation that niight arise. AYhether or not there is any substance in this suggestion, there is little expectation iu London that the conference is likely to succeed in its avowed object of drawing up peace treaties for both Germany and Austria. The most that is liojied for is modcst jirogress that will not furthcr exacerbate the situation. The position of the Austrian treaty is

even more oliscure. There has lieen a eomplete brealtdown in the eft'orts to establish even a final list of points of difference. Britain 's policy, as stated by Mr. Bevin, is to give Austria a peace treaty as soon as possible but there is little hope that tlie Russians will abate their many objections to this course. The French policy is oue of Ihe obstructions in the general situation. The French are almost compJetely dominated by their determination to ensure Germany 's eomplete military impoteuce.' M. Bidault was reported to liave agreed that if the London conference failed, France would throw her zone of oceu-

pations 111 with the Anglo-Americans ' endeavour to evolve a tripartite administration. M. Bidault 's position, however, has been greatly weakened by the success of the de Gaullists who make it a cardinal point of policy that France must completey absorb the Haar. and liave an equaL voice with Britain and America in the administration of the Rulir. ) —