CHANGES LIKELY SOON

Chronicle (Levin), 9 April 1947, Page 5

CHANGES LIKELY SOON

. CSpecial Correspondent.)

British Political Sitnation

Reeeived Tuesday,, 7 .p.m. LONDON, April 8, ' " Commenting on political rumo,urs, includinig dis&atisf action -with and withi-rF the Labour Party, ehangies of Ministers • ■and .the possiba.lla.ty of h general '.eiecPion; in the autumn, The "Economist sa-y-s kj is very difficult '.to ifcnow ' ' ho-w anuen .eredence, if .any, ■shoulkt be attaehed fo, -a-ny ;of these aieports." , fIt is abunctantly clear, " it con ; tinues, "that the hpne-ymoon of it.hc La-bour Governine.nt -is lon-g 'si-nee ovei bnt it would be -a ver-y greatt -ipistake to • e'xaggerate -the- extentE- of the -discontenx wit'hin the Labour Party. There are ■ severai groups that • are d-iscontentetl with specific aspects of Govex-nmeni po-licy and it happeiis fhat -the Nationai Serviee Bill brings seVeral of theni *to gether in oppositibn>' "Opposition to tlie Bill, 'however; it by no means the orily thing that unites t-hem. . They are -.also united in noa wivshing the -Gov.ernnient real hanu Nor do they wish to split the party oi bring the Goveinmeut down and it \va.» only 'heeause, on the National Ser.vice Bill, that the -Government was quite sure of a majority that so -niucii skirmishing was indulged in. ■ ' It wo.uO.ci, eontinues The Economist, "be a misreacling of the situation 'o think that the debate threatens a eontinuance of the Government. Hau it heen in danger the Lahour bat.tali.oii.would have heen on parade to the last man. Whe-re t-liese etfect-s rnay in eourse of. timo be -visihle, is in the policy -and personnel of- the Government. Ministers may think it ad-vis-able, if not to alte'r their course, -at least to tack. To say that the present Ministerial .team is not pcrfect is to carry an understatement to the point of satire. Many Ministers are tired, some are ill and ,'quife a number have heen proved inadequate. Yet Mr. Atthu may fmd it very difficult to -maia ehanges. He is no ' doubt conscious o the failures in the team but -eould h; replace them with better men and stil maintain the trade union ciuot-a?

I "How long the Government will g ' on niuch the sarne as it has been going and witli the same personalities, is, wliere r.umours of election heeonn ! relevant. From the strictly part, I viewpoint, there are some argument for dissolntion yet there wo-uld I) ecjually grav-e disadvantages. To havi an election requires an election issiu ' and the Opposition, with the co-mmam of tlie Lords, eould create an issue a any time. But the Tories will not issuc ■ a chailenge unless 'the trend of event . gives them a elianee of w'inning. " On the balance The Economist think the odds are tliat this parliament wil. liv.e out its norma! life and that -u general election is,): still two or thre years off. But it adds the odds migli ehange. The halaijce in the country i not very far from being even. Bot1. major pafties can- apparently count o. a minimum of al mo'st' "40 per cent of the vote and the LiberUls and others liav never f'allen mUch '-helow 8 .per ccnL This means .that general elections ar decided hy about 12 to 15 per eent. o voters, some4 3,,000,000 people, of wliom, in 1,945., two-thirds voted for Labou and gave it its parliamentary majoriti The margins are small and when it ii l-emeiubered how rtlany electors vote. Lahour last time purelv as a protes) i how little Lahour has done to pleas« those who do not eonsider themselve to be members of ) the working clas> and how much more economic trouble -i antieipated before' 1949 or 1 950 — whei these things are reniembered it is diffi cult to share tlie conficlence of man Laboui- supporters that they will win another easy victory nex-t time even i , they once again have Mr. Churchill''; assistance. j "The next few bye-elections will bc watch ed very closely, " says T'ln Economist. "If they show Labour a^ • strong ;as eyer, the temptation to disIsplve this 'y^ar will: be . very powerfnl | but 'if .they sjfPW;5f6i- the firsf' "time any' ■ signifieant fa'll iii ihe' Laboui- vote — and i the fall would not have to be large to be signifieant — then it will be tlu Opposition that wiil begin to -talk oi election and whose taetics i-n both: Houses .of Parliament will be shaped to ' that end."