INDUSTRIAL MILESTONE OR TOMBSTONE

Chronicle (Levin), 8 January 1947, Page 2

INDUSTRIAL MILESTONE OR TOMBSTONE

( S y ecial CoiTespyiiden 1 . )

i : * — Produciion Targets in Britain

LONDON, Jan. 6. Comtnents by Britisii induslrialists at the closo oi' 1946, and surveys oi tlio industrial prospects for tlie New Year, all indicate tliat 19-17 will prove either a milestone or a tombstone of JBritish post-vvar r ooo very. In spile of tlie inevitable ifs and buts which must qualify all prediotions, ihe balance of opinion and evidence appears lo be subslantially on the side of a mllestone. But it will be only a milestone. The goal is still in the distanee. During 1946, in the face of post-war shorlages and restrietions, labour difficultics, international. uncertainties and tlie reaction of the nation after eight years of desperate wartime striving, Britain has pushed her export ligures to 20 per cent. above the pre-war ligures and within 50 per cent. of the ligure set as the over-all target for her production drive. .While she did this she lield her imports down to 70 per cent. of their pre-war value. _ These are salieut facts emerging from any study of iast year. What remains to be seen is wliother these exertious and self-denials and the austerity which accompanies thein can be continued and even increased. The majority of iudustrial leaders appear to agrec that they can be increased, but in aimost every case they urge fewer restrietions, reduced taxatiou and inore ■ incentives to eil'ort as prerequisite conditions.

Governnient Policy The probleui of 1947 for Britain is whether a Governnient coniniitted lo far-reaching uationaiisalion and social bettcnnent schemes us well as to tremendous tasks of reconstruclion, ean successfully reconcile its political ideology with practical politics. Supporters of the Governnient have . no doubt it can; ils critics are equally certain it canuot. In between lies a great indetorminate section of the public which has no option but to wait and soe. | There are some obvious danger points. One of the mosl obvious is the labour siLuation, l'or on it aimost everything el.,e depeuds. The piain i'act, is that, owing Lo war casualties, emigration and a.n iuexorabie law of statistics, Britain 's working population is 4'aliing. it muy be maintained at 20,000,000 this year, but unless preseut trcnds are counteracted, it will fall by 750,000 in the next three years. One of Ihe xeasons is the raiging of the sehooi leaving age to 1b. This comes into effect this- year aud will reduce the youth labour force in industry inunedialely by 370,000. Other uncertainties are the duration of the preseiit sellers ' market aud trends of world trade and economics in the next 12 mouths. - Oue i'act reniams certain. If Britain is to pav for what she needs, and aiso to.pav for the reconstruction entailed by her war exertious, she niust sell more oi' her experts for doliars. ,„Yt presenl only oue iiftii of her experts is produeing doliars, and one'of the biggest probiems confronting her leaders is how to increase this ratio. Equally urgent is Ihe probleui of controlling rising prices and regulatmg taxatiou so that the country can not only live aml Jive better, but also reconstruct with'out destroying incentive to eil'ort. To all these problems J917 must ])rovide an answer in some shape or form. ■ Reinarkable Gonversions The usual end of the year stocktaking surveys in ma.jor industries reveal that, subject to improvements in Ihe labour and supplv position, motorveliicle inamifacturing, the irou and sleel trade, heavy engiueeriug trades, electrical equipment nianul'acturing industries, shipbuilding and the woollen nianufacturing trade have all ell'ected - remarlcably successful conversions from war to peace time productibn and have sufticiont oi'ders, both at houie au.d abroad, to make 1947 a record year if they can only iill even half of the deinand. The eugineeriug aud motor manu i'acturing trades togethor ai'e alreadv producing nearly 30 per cent. o! Britain 's total experts, and the shipbuilding industry has £200, 000, 000. vorth of contracts to fill in Ihe next 12 months, with a record year beliind it. In spile oi' tlie coal shortage and the dillicuity in obtaiuing new machinery for re-equipment, the irou aml steel

trade increased . its „output by nearly 1,000,000 tous . dariiig each quarter of 1946. it is autieipated that the present shortage of gheet steel will continue until^the middle of thia year, but1 thereafter the position is expected toimprove. ' The proposai to nationaiise] this industry has beeii shelved, ahd: many large combines are now ready to carry out extensi\e re-equipment and: expausion plans. ' The woollen clothing tx'ade, with an . abumlance of raw material but a short-' age of female labour, has now praetically satistied the, demand for demobilisatiou suits and is ready to attack the hunie and export trade xvith its full energies. The problems of the Britisli cotton spinning trade, however, are mnch more involved. It is short of both labour and raw materials, and it faces a very lieavy and coinplex moderhisation programme. All Depends on Coal The prospects for 1947 of all these industries, and of the natioiml prosperity itself, however, depeud on coal. 'J'lie National Coal Board, l'aced with a gigantic tusk, is stepping up ]>roduction (o meet a 175 per cent. export target and a liugo liome demand with a dwiiuUing labour force. There is some prospect that a reversal of the miners' decision to bar the einploymeht of foreign labour in the inines, and added incentives given by liigher wages aml improved conditions, vvill correct this, Increased importation of fuel oil, which is proniised this ,) ear, vvill also help, but even the most optimistic admit that the gap between demaird and production cannot be closed this year, "and that the time vvlien Britain vvill be able to resume her place as a. great coal exporting country -is still distaiit. The coal trade will need iudustrial peace, timi ieadership, raised morale aud vvidespread reorganisation if it is to meet the dein.ands that will be fnade on it. On the satisfaction of tliose demands depends whether iudustrial Britain vvill uiake 1947 a milestone Ln her recovery or a tombstone of her hopcs.