THE PRESS FRIDAY, JULY 1, 1983. Italy’s election losers

Press, 1 July 1983, Page 12

THE PRESS FRIDAY, JULY 1, 1983. Italy’s election losers

Even after the results of Italy’s General Election have been announced, it is easier to count the losers than it is to decide who has won. The Christian Democrats obtained the biggest share of the votes and will have most seats in the Parliament, but the Christian Democrats’ share was less than one-third of the total and was the worst performance by them since the establishment of the republic in 1946. The 225 seats they will hold in the 630-seat Chamber of Deputies will not enable them to govern without the help of others. The former Government collapsed when the main coalition partner, the Socialists, withdrew after five months and precipitated the election just held. The Christian Democrats have ruled Italy either alone or in coalitions since 1946. They will hold most of the power again, but will find the power harder to exercise. The Socialists were responsible for the holding of the election, because their leader, Mr Bettino Craxi, hoped for a substantial boost to the Socialist share of the votes. The share increased, but only from 9.8 per cent in the 1979 election to 11.4 per cent. Had Mr Craxi obtained 13 per cent or more of the vote, he might have staked a strong claim to be the next Prime Minister. The Socialists will have 73 seats in the chamber compared with the 62 they held previously; but they will not be any more influential. Possibly the voters were cross with the Socialists for causing the election a year earlier than one was due to be held. Feeling is still strong between the Christian Democrats and the Socialists over the downfall of the last Government and over words spoken during the election campaign. They need one another and will have to be bedfellows in a formal coalition, or under some other arrangement, if Italy is to have a Government that can put through a programme. The Communists’ share of the vote did not drop as much as had been predicted. They were down to 29.9 per cent of the vote and will hold 198 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. They appear to have been resigned to a lower share and may have taken heart in the drop of only 0.5 per cent from their 1979 share. Although the Communist leader, Mr Enrico Berlinguer, said that, for the first time, it was possible to form a majority in the Chamber of Deputies without the Christian Democrats, such a combination is not likely. Mr Craxi has made it clear that he will not take part in a Socialist coalition with the Communists. Even if he did so, the two parties together could not command a majority and other parties would refuse to join a

Socialist-Communist coalition. Thus, the Communist Party, in spite of the closeness of its vote to the Christian Democrats, will be in opposition once more. Their comfort in losing only a small share of the votes cast will be tempered by the fact that, in this election, the Democratic Proletarian Unity Party, the P.P.U.P., was not splitting their vote as it did in The Italian Communist Party is Western Europe’s largest. It is also the Communist Party in Western Europe that is most independent of Moscow. Although the Italian Communist Party has an aversion to being compared with a social democratic party, it has many platforms closer to those under the “social democracy” label than those normally associated with a Communist Party. It does not appear to favour complete nationalisation of the means of production and it gives its allegiance to the Western Alliance. This might seem to bring it close to the Socialists and to make a coalition possible. However, the Socialists are suspicious of the Communists and tend to view the repudiation of nationalisation and the acceptance of membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation as expedients rather than as sincere and permanent convictions.

The Republican Party did best in the election in terms of a gain in the share of votes. It jumped to 5.1 per cent, compared with 3 per cent in 1979. This may be attributed partly to the popularity of the party leader, Mr Giovanni Spadolini. For a while, until the Republicans withdrew from the coalition, Mr Spadolini was Prime Minister. By themselves, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists will not have a majority and Mr Spadolini will almost certainly have to throw in his lot with these two parties again. The neo-fascists made a gain, probably picking up a protest vote. The people of Italy, with one more election behind them, are probably not the winners either. The position of the Christian Democrats has been weakened and the Christian Democrats will be unable to get economic reforms adopted. The patronage that has been the hallmark of Christian Democratic Governments will probably continue. The Italians will have no increase in political stability and Italy has landed itself with one of the weaker versions of the same Government that it has had since 1946. From the perspective of other democracies, it is interesting that, in spite of the success of Mrs Margaret Thatcher in Britain, the Italian conservatives fared the worst they have ever done.