Big Stock Increases In Prospect

Press, Volume CV, Issue 31007, 12 March 1966, Page 10

Big Stock Increases In Prospect

With ample feed supplies and farmers apparently holding back stock to build up their flocks significant increases in sheep numbers are expected by June this year. It has been estimated that the increase could be as much as 6 to 7 per cent on the position at June last year.

At the end of June last year the national flock stood at 53.747,000. It has been estimated that stock increases could raise tills tally to at least 56 million and to as high as 57 million this year. Within this increase ewe flock numbers could rise from 37,200.000 last June to at least 39 million and to as high as I 40 million. It is believed that dairy cattle numbers could have reached 3.400.000 by the end of January from 3,238,000 a year earlier and beef cattle could have increased from 3,650.000 a year ago to 3,900,000 to 4 million.

If the level of stock numbers projected for the current year is attained it will mean an increase on last year's figures of more than five per cent and a total increase since 1962-63 (which was the base year for calculations of the targets committee of the Agricultural Production Conference) of 12.7 per cent. To meet the targets expected to be reached by 1972-73 a further

increase of 23.3 per cent would be required, or 3.6 per cent a year, which is actually not much above the target figure. The bearing that export prices can have on export earnings is illustrated by the fact that whereas in 1962-63 exports (of goods) totalled £303 million it is now estimated that for the current year they will reach £390 mil- . lion to £395 million. As import prices have scarely i changed over this period the . earning power of exports has increased by some 30 per cent , in three years, which is well above target requirements. It is pointed out, however, that ■ much of this has been due to • price increases and as further price increases seem un- : likely it is important that the i production targets should be ■ met.

There are a number of indicators of the growing momentum of agriculture.

It is estimated that in the current season butterfat production will rise from 623 m lb last season to 640 m lb, wool

reduction from 623 m lb to 660 m lb and meat production from 823,000 tons to 850,000 tons—this latter figure may not be reached, however with the hold-back of stock. Between July last year and January of this year usage of fertiliser was 121 per cent ahead of the preceding corresponding period. To date about £600.000 has been paid out through the transport subsidy on fertiliser on the basis of about 15s a ton for which subsidy was applicable, and in a full year the total cost of the subsidy is likely to be in excess of £lm. And in the not too far distant future some extension of the subsidy payment may be necessary to offset the effect of likely increases in fertiliser prices. In other ways too there is evidence of the growth of farming and farm output. Imports of mowers into the country in the five months from July to November last year totalled 3230 against 2220 in the corresponding period in the previous year and imports of pick-up balers were similarly up to 1311 compared with 524. While part of this increase can be attributed to freeing of items from import control, the need to utilise better increased pasture growth following heavier use of fertiliser and other investment in farming in the last year or two is believed to have been a factor in this situation.

And at the same time the Agricultural Production Council, successor to the Agricultural Production Conference, is continuing to look into incentives for farming and the removal of impediments to increased production.

An incentive scheme for livestock increases has now been submitted to the Government following approval, with some modification, by the Dominion Council of Federated Farmers and the Agricultural Production Council. A beef incentive proposal is also being examined.

A working party set up by the Agricultural Production Council to make recommendations on the possible alternative uses of surplus dairy calves has now completed its report. The council is also seeking, through its district advisory committees, information about the seasonal or short term finance position in their districts, as it is felt that with the hold back of stock, the high cost of stock replacements, tax commitments and the credit squeeze farmers could be financially embarrassed when trying to increase production.

The council is also asking its committees to appraise the fertiliser transport subsidy scheme. About 200 cadets have enrolled in the farm cadet scheme and it is thought that this is likely to grow to around the 500 mark.