Wars Against Guerrillas ‘Can Be Won’

Press, Volume CV, Issue 31005, 10 March 1966, Page 18

Wars Against Guerrillas ‘Can Be Won’

Conflicts against guerrillas, such as that in Vietnam, could be won, said Mr John Scott, a special correspondent of “Time” magazine, in Christchurch yesterday. “Several in the recent past have been won,” he told an invited audience after a lunch sponsored by Time Inc.

They had been won in Greece, in Malaya and in the Philippines where the ratio of regular forces to guerrillas had been eight, nine or 10 to one.

“A prerequisite of military success was the elimination of supplies of material and people coming in to support the insurgents,” said Mr Scott. In South Vietnam, at best, there is a five-to-one ratio, and substantial forces are still coming in from the North. Our ratio remains limited and unsatisfactory. Ability To Escalate

“The outcome depends on the ability of the two sides to escalate their effort,” said Mr Scott. In the United States there had been talk of increasing the present American forces of about 200,000 to 400,000 by the end of this vear and doubling them again in 1967. “How far can the other side escalate? The defection rate from the Viet Cong has now grown to a point higher than their recruitment rate,” he said. The South Vietnamese Army of about 555.000 men was now recruiting at a rate higher than the rate of defections.

Mr Scott, who visited South Vietnam in March and November last year and is about to return to Saigon, argued that the prospects of the North Vietnamese Army invading South Vietnam, or of direct Chinese or Russian intervention was slight. In a direct confrontation, the North Vietnamese Army, although it was rated a good force, would be at a numeri-

cal disadvantage and an invasion of South Vietnam would leave the northern frontier open to the Chinese whom the Vietnamese did not like. China’s Recovery China had recovered, in the last year or two, a measure of affluence and would be reluctant to repeat the high sacrifices which it was now known had been made by China during the Korean War. Russia, which In the past had mounted massive operations, was inhibited from this because of the distance of its own seaports from Vietnam and the difficulties of sending help overland to the Viet Cong—an operation which would depend on a network of imperfect Chinese railroads and lay forces open to being political hostages of Peking.

“I believe we have the capacity to escalate in South Vietnam to the order of 100 per cent in the next two years and that we will establish that level of numerical superiority which turned out in previous cases to be necessary.” Before that, he said, the other side might be ready to negotiate. South Vietnam lacked a charismic national leader, said Mr Scott. “It is probably accurate to say that Ho Chi Minh is the most effective leader to have come out of Vietnam—and it’s too bad that he is on the wrong side. But Vietnam is not a nation. Ask a Vietnamese who he is and he will probably reply in terms of his tribe, village, locality or province.” A nation might be forged in the present struggle. General Ky had brought more staibriility than had been

expected; he was young—only 35—honest, and effective, and might turn out to be a great leader. “But I am afraid we are not likely to have a very high level of indigenous political stability in Saigon for some time." “Britain Will Stay” ~

Reviewing the military and civilian support the United States could expect in Asia. Mr Scott said he believed that in spite of financial difficulties, Britain would stay in the area. “Until a year ago, Britain had more men in Asia than we did, though it was less noisy about it. “As long as France is rum by Charles de Gaulle it looks as if we will be lucky if we do not meet active sabotage. French in Asia—there are 17,000 in South Vietnam, teaching in schools and running cafes—say they wish de Gaulle would stay in Europe.” New Zealand and Australia would remain heavy net capital importers for the next 20 or 30 years and it was obvious to Americans that in the scale of commitments their contribution would remain relatively small, said Mr Scott