PROGRESS TOWARDS ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Press, Volume LXXXII, Issue 24909, 24 June 1946, Page 4

PROGRESS TOWARDS ECONOMIC RECOVERY

BRITISH INDUSTRY

[By-

OSCAR R. HOBSON,

At the first anniversary of the end of the war in Europe it seems natural to try to sum up Britain’s progress towards economic recovery. It would be easy to make out a good case either for the pessimistic or the optimistic view. One can point, for example, to the slowness of demobilisation, the continued shortages in the shops, the fact that British food rations are now down to the lowest level reached during the war, and perhaps even lower. One can dwell on rising prices and note that not even a start has been made in repairing the major war damage to our cities. On the other hand, it is quite easy to survey the scene from another angle and present an equally convincing picture of rapid recovery. Over a wide range of industrial production, for example, there are substantial increases-to report. We have, unlike some other countries, avoided major labour disputes. If food is short—largely owing to our determination ’to help starving Europe—transport and entertainment are rapidly getting back to pre-war standards. The spirit of war weariness is steadily declining. Every week brings some alleviation of the scarcity of consumption goods, other than food; exports are rising steadily; and so on. All these things, good and bad, are true; yet the most difficult thing of all is to present what one could really claim to be a balanced picture. A Million More Workers The key to the whole situation is, of course, employment. The present position is that though the total working population of Britain is about a million above pre-war, it is something like a million beloW the end-of-the-war level. On the other hand, the total employed in industry, though probably a good million below pre-war (owing to the fact that the armed forces number at least 2,000,000 more than in June. 1939), is now the best part of a million up on June of last year. Employment in the export industries is now slightly above pre-war; but in the manufacturing industries in general it is probably still somewhat below the level of either June, 1945, or June, 1939. Workers employed on orders for the home market, though perhaps 1,500,000 up in the last 12 months, are still several hundred thousand—say at least 10 per cent. —below June, 1939. In that fact, and in the further facts that many materials are short in supply and that the large amounts Of both labour and material must be employed on reconstruction and rehabilitation of industry, the limits set to the quick recovery of the output of consumption goods are indicated. In the main departments of production the worst spot is, of course, coal, and the best spots are steel, shipbuilding, motor vehicle production, and chemicals. Coal output from the mines had recovered in March to the level of June, 1945; but it was at a weekly rate of nearly 700,000 tons, or 15 per cent., below 1939: and as house consumption was a good 10 per cent. higher, there was not only no coal left

Financial Editor of the "News Chronicle."]

for export, but stocks were still dining and were at the dangero,2t low level of less than a fortrSS 7 supply and less than half the Dre » normal. Despite coal and reconstnT tion difficulties, steel production up well, being slightly above ore. 3* and between 5 and 10 per cent than in mid-1945. ' 3hw In finished manufacture, corrunerri.i motor vehicles stand out with a tnSi production fully double the nre-w. ligure and about equal lo the mid-Ss level, but distributed as between civu ian and service users in the relation about 90 to 10 instead of 40 to 60 Ph vate car output, however, is stili ill than half pre-war, but is exoandS. rapidly, the March figure of 12 <if cars being double the January one aw more than 20 times the average the first six months of 1945. w . Shipbuilding Record Shipbuilding, one of Britain's oid» Industries, is enjoying record activii? At the end ot March 1,676,000 tons at merchant shipping were under con. struction, compared with an averaae 1938-39 figure of less than I,ooo® tons; and launchings during the quarter of the year were at the rata of 920,000 tons a year, whieh ia con. parable with an average annual fisnr* of 1,080,000 tons in the boom 1919-21. In textile production there is both light and shade. Output of cotton yarn and cloth shows no pronounced im. provement over a year ago and is wall below pre-war—thanks mainly to the difficulty of recruiting labour for an old and unpopular industry. Wool, ta which satisfactory figures are oct available, is not in very much better case. Rayon, however, is doing bet. ter. Yarn production is well above both 1945 and pre-war levels; and rayon and mixed fabrics, though not up to the highest pre-war levels, ate appreciably up on any war-time flg. ures. Production of other consumption goods presents the same wide divergences. Boots and shoes, pottery, and rubber goods are irresponsive; but carpets, pots and pans, and electrical appliances are expanding. In transport the salient facts ata that rail traffics are declining sharply with the falling off of military re. quirements, but that passenger train miles run are 10 per cent, up on a year ago. Licensed motor vehicles pt "all types are 50 per cent, up on early 1945 and within about 10 per cent, S pre-war. Finally, in oversea trade we have achieved the position that exports are back to close on 00 per cent, of ISM volume, while imports are not more than two-thirds of 1938 volume. But in order to restore and mailtaih our pre-war standard of living it is reckoned that exports must ba raised to something like 75 per cent above pre-war volume, whioh meant that the present level must be nearly doubled. And that brings me to a summing up—in a couple of sentences —of the measure of Britain's recovery, "one year after.” It is on the whole and in view of all the clrcumstahcaa, not unsatisfactory.