RUMANIA IN THE CRISIS

Press, Volume LXXIV, Issue 22515, 24 September 1938, Page 16

RUMANIA IN THE CRISIS

A Conflict of Interests LINK BETWEEN CZECHOSLOVAKIA AND RUSSIA (SPECIAL t-T WRITTEN EOB, TH* PRESS.) [By "ARGUS.”] For Rumania, the present crisis creates two very difficult problems. The first is that of deciding whether, in the event of -an attack on Czechoslovakia, she will permit the passage of Russian troops through her territory. The second is that of preventing Rumania from becoming the victim of some sfuch partition scheme as is now being forced on Czechoslovakia.

At no point do the frontiers of Czechoslovakia and her great northern ally, Soviet Russia, coincide. A band of neutral territory divides them, so that to give front-line .support to the Czechs the Red Army must cross either Poland or Rumania. Transit on the newly-con-structed railway tracks through Rumania’s northern provinces is generally held to provide the quickest means of reinforcement. The position of Rumania in the present crisis is, therefore, of the greatest importance. Her refusal to consent to the passage of Russian troops would gravely embarrass Russia who, by forcing a way through, would be adding to her enemies. On the other hand, Rumania’s willingness to allow the transport of military supplies would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Germany. Next to Russia, Rumania is the greatest producer of oil in Europe. Her timber is the best of any in the southeastern states and her wheat fields among the richest. The control of these resources, which has been the avowed aim of German policy for years, would be of inestimable value in time of war. It would seem, therefore, that Rumania’s mineral and agricultural wealth, besides her strategical position as a bridge between the Czechs and the Russians, destine her to play more than a passive role in the event of war. What are the plans of the present Rumanian Government? So far the crisis has failed to reveal them. Foreign Policy Rumania has tried to avoid the choice between Russia and Germany. Threatened with* being crushed between these two Powers, her rulers Have constantly sought for tactical advantages, while their main concern has been to avoid the danger of a foreign occupation against which their own forces would be powerless to defend them. As a result, Rumanian foreign policy in the last two years has been bewildering in its changes. ' From a pro-Russian . attitude the country passed to a belief in neutrality and an alliance with Poland; from thete it. switched back to the old rapprochement with France; then went over to the German camp; and lately, just in time to escape domination, it has moved a little uncertainly towards Great Britain and France. ■ • Since the war Rumania’s attitude in external politics has been determined by her of Russia in the east, of Hungary in the west, and of Bulgaria to the south. The rise of the Rumanian nation is an event of recent times, and she bad every reason to congratulate herself on the peace settlement by which she was given the jgreater part of Transylvania from Hungary, and the whole of Bessarabia from' Russia, thereby doubling her territory and increasing her population from’ 7,000,000 to 17,000,000. Rumania’s fears are centred on these newly; acquired regions, and her desire has been to find as broad a basis as possible for alliances designed to preserve the territorial status quo.

Minorities Problem Rumania joined with Czechoslovakia and Jugoslavia in forming the Little Entente, primarily to maintain the post-war settlement of the Hungarian frontier. Like both her partners Rumania has German and Hungarian minorities, the Hungarian (about 1,500,000) being the more numerous and dissatisfied of the two. Any weakening in Prague to the Czechoslovak minorities is bound to have important repercussions in Bucharest. To keep its .country from becoming the object of similar demands the Rumanian Government last month issued an enlightened minorities statute, which, although it spells .progress, is also an admission of the servile status in which the minorities have been kept. Rumanian sympathy with Czechoslovakia, with whom there has been close collaboration, is genuine and deep. Yet it is far from certain whether the Rumanians would go to the help of Czechoslovakia, for except in the case of aggression by Hungary, there is no undertaking to do so. Russia and Germany Distrust of Russia is deeply ingrained in the Rumanian mentality. Relations over Bessarabia, which contains more than 1,100,000 Ukrainians, have been bad, and it was not until 1927 that the Soviet recognised the inclusion of this province in Rumania. In 1933 a non-aggres-sion pact was signed between the two countries, while two years ago a ■ compromise seems to have been effected by which in return for guarantees concerning Bessarabia the passage of Russian troops when going to the aid of Czechoslovakia was to be permitted. But since , thaU time the strength of German penetration in southeastern Europe has grown enormously. Germany is Rumania’s second best customer for farm produce. Rumania’s industrial equipment is so" largely German that severance from the great engineering plants of the Ruhr would create serious difficulties. The opposition party to the Rumanian Government is, moreover, violently anti-Bolshe-vik and anti-Jewish. The Iron Guard has maintained a close asso- , ciation with Berlin, and, although driven underground at present, has £reat influence in the army. Stiller Resistance to Germany . Resistance to German penetration has certainly stiffened within the _ last, few; months* 5 Financial negpti-j atiohs in London and "the recent visit of a .trench economic mission are drawing Rumania into the Franco-British trading sphere, while there is every semblance of an alliance between Germany and Rumania’s former enemy, Hungary.. Moreover, the Jews , have been granted the same rights of citizenship as the other minorities, which is a slap in the face for Nazism. And-railways have been rapidly constructed from the Russian frontier. The present indications are that Rumania will choose the Russo-Czech group, if only because Russia is "the 4 nearer and her frontier indefensible. It is hoped that the Red Army will hasten, across Rumania and engage the Germans in Hungary.