"THE CRISIS OF 1935-36"

Press, Volume LXXI, Issue 21416, 7 March 1935, Page 14

"THE CRISIS OF 1935-36"

+ PREPARATIONS IN JAPAN PARALLEL DRAWN WITH GERMANY OP 1911 A story of how Japan is preparing for a crisis in 1935-36, how military practice is carried out in Tokyo and elaborate precautions were being made against raids on the city, was told by Mr Calder Mackay at a luncheon of the Optimists' Club at the Young Men's Christian Association rooms yesterday. Mr Mackay has not long returned from a visit to Japan, lasting four and a half months, and he has made a study of the situation of the East. He said he considered Japan was doing a great service in the Pacific in checking communism, and that there need be no fear that she had designs in the ' south. At the same time he. likened the Japanese nation to the Germany of 1914 —a nation which had not known defeat and knew only the glories of war, Mr Mackay said that while he was in Japan the Japanese were talking about "the crisis of 1935-36," and he had taken every opportunity to find out what they meant. One day he went into a departmental store and found hundreds of children receiving instruction, using banners and flags, etc., and he was told they were being prepared for 1935-36, when a time of emergency was expected. The Japanese had coined a new word to describe this emergency and had formed a special cabinet to prepare for it. In Tokyo while he was there the whole city was wired up with radio . speakers, and the mayor announced that war had broken out, and that everyone in the capital was to follow instructions to be given. Later he announced that war had reached the city, and by that more than 500,000 men and women had donned uniform and prepared Ihemselves for duty—all in the space of an hour and a half. Blasts from sirens warned the city, of the approach of war, and smoke screens were laid over the city with remarkable speed and efficiency. Blacking Out a City Altogether eight "attacks" were made on Tokyo between 7 o'clock that night and 4.30 the next morning, and during that period there was the terrific din of bombs and machineguns, and searchlights flashed everywhere. The efficiency with which they could black out the city was marvellous.

During the previous year real tear gas had been used, and the offices in parts of Tokyo had to be closed for two days afterwards. Then in addition there was a date on which gasmasks had to be put on, and persons failing to do so could be arrested. The bombing of ships in the harbour and the rescuing of people from them was also practised. It was natural to ask for an explanation of all this and ask who did Japan fear. She did not fear England, and did not regard the Singapore base as a threat. Did she fear America? There was no doubt she was apprehensive when America completed the so-called trade agreement with Russia, and she die! not like America's decision in 1933 to buil l up the strength of her fleet. Japan was out for the complete hegemony of China, and she must push on industrialisation. She fully realised the menace China would be if she woke up commercially. Most naval men agreed that neither Britain nor America would be able to defeat Japan. The only combination that could do it was America and Russia. If New Zealand thought that twothirds of the way from here to Australia there was a strong force of ar oplanes equipped with young and dating communists we would not be happy. Such was the position in which Japan found herself, and it was essential to Japan's peace of mind that she should extend her western boundaries, and she had her eyes on a piece of Russian territory. Moscow did not want war with Japan. Russia's political and economic system was still requiring strengthening—if she were defeated in war her internal system would be overthrown. Budget for Armaments Japan, also, was not ready to enter hostilities. Her army was undergoing an overhaul which would not be completed for about 12 months. The last Japanese budget had devoted 46 per cent, of its funds to armaments —an amount equal to £94,000.000 at par. The increase in the strength of the arms of the nations over the 1913 figures were quoted by Mr Mackay as follows: France, 25 per cent. Italy, 26 per cent, Great Britain, 48.8 per cent. America, 190.2 per cent. * Japan, 388.0 per cent. With the big vote in the latest budget, Japan's percentage of increase would be more than 500. "We need not have any fear that Japan has eyes on New Zealand," said Mr Mackay. "She has too much to occupy her in the East. She is not looking south. She wants to make peaceful penetration into Asia, and wants to get to the raw materials in Mongolia." "Never Suffered Defeat" Japan had never suffered defeat and knew only the glory of war. lhere was far too much wearing of swords. Japan had never suffered growing pains. The parallel of Japan to-day was the Germany of 1914. There was a fear and undercurrent that something was going to happen, and something would have to happen with the ultra-patriots on one hand, and the communists on the other. There were spies everywhere, and communism was being rigidly suppressed. It was easy to get 12 months' imprisonment for harbouring communist thoughts, and if a person gave money to a street beggar who turned out to be a communist benefactor might find himself put in prison. Russian propaganda was rigidly guarded against, and people were liable to impi isonmcnt for live years if they were iound in possession of a short-wave wneless set, which might be capable of reception from Russia. "When you leave Japan you are quite relieved to get away—that is, if you have been studying the conditions there—but one reflection is that Japan is doing a great work. She is keeping communism in check in the Pacific," he said. "If Manchukuo were not in her hands and being kept in order by her, communism might have swept through the 30,000,000 of population there. Japan has an important role to play in the destinies of the Far East."