The Press Wednesday, November 12, 1924. The National Finances.

Press, Volume LX, Issue 18228, 12 November 1924, Page 8

The Press Wednesday, November 12, 1924. The National Finances.

A brief message from Wellington which we print to-day records that in issuing a statement of the public revenue and expenditure for the seven months ended October 31st the Prime Minister says that, the financial position is exceedingly satisfactory. It is as yet too early to make any confident prediction concerning the revenue and expenditure for" the whole of the current year, but unless something unforeseeable happens a substantial surplus is very probable. The Treasury's calculations for the year 1923-24 suggested a surplus of rather less than half a million, but actually a surplus of £1,800,000 was realised. For the current year the Budget estimate of revenue (on the existing scale of taxation) was £28,857,620, and the appropriations for expenditure amount to £28,462,000. The Prime Minister proposed, however, to make concessions in taxation total-1 ling something like a million sterling, j In his survey of the session which we 1 printed on Saturday last, Mr Massey said that the rednctions in taxation, amounted to the sacrifice of £838,500 for a full year. Of this sum - the reductions in land-t&x and income-tax account for £718,000, and when allowance is made' for the fact that the minor concessions (in the amusementtax and tobacco duty) will operate for only part of the year, it would appear that the total concession for the year is about £760,000. We should then expect for the year a total revenue of about £28,100,000, which is more than £300,000 less than the amount appropriatedfforr r expenditure. But, a deficit is not at all likely, for although the estimate of revenue may not be largely exceeded, the ■ expenditure will no doubt fall as much short of the estimate as it did hist year. As we have said,; the actual teturns for six months are not a suitable basis for confident calculations of the whole year's totals, especially oil the revenue side, because the land-tax and income-tax come in daring the second half of the year. But one may obtain soime light from a comparison with the figures for. the first six months (April Ist to September 30th) of the year 1923-24. For this period last year the revenue was £10,496,000,. and for the same period this year it was £10,930,000 —an increase of £434,000. The expenditure increased by £s64,ooo—from £11,982,678 to £12,547,334 (the increase being duo mainly to debt charges). Since the estimated increase in the expenditure for the whole year was over 2£ millions, it is plain enough from the half-year's figures that this was a large over-estimate. The estimate of revenue for the whole year (allowance being made for the effect of the redactions in taxation) looked for an increase of only £150,000 or so on last year's total. There has already been an increase of nearly, half a million, and although the effects of the lower rates of direct taxation will appear in the second, half of the year, it is safo to say that they will probably not lead to aiy actual reduction in the receipts. One may conclude, therefore, that the revenue will be as much as last year's at least, and* that the expenditure will not have increased so largely as to leave Mr Massey without a very substantial surplus indeed. ,