ENGLISH WOOL LETTER.

Press, Volume L, Issue 14978, 27 May 1914, Page 2

ENGLISH WOOL LETTER.

FAVOURABLE OUTLOOK FOB CBOSSBEED WOOL,

(SPECIAIXT WRITTEN FOB "the PRESS.") BRADFORD, April 17. A valued Ausralian correspondent in close touch with the trade, asks this mail what is the real reason why merino values should show such a sharp advance during February and March. I can only answer that the upward move was duo entirely to the Home trade being caught 6hort of raw material, everybody being convinced that it was policy to buy, as nothing indicated that anything would be any cheaper for the next sis months at least. Besides this there has been the increased demand on the part of the United States. These factors combined to push, prices to a nigher altitude, and whiie markets have assumed more normal proportions since the spurt of-February, we have the fact that on the whole business has been done in considerable volume although unattended by tho outward mannestatiou of life which was then such a pronounced feature of tho Home trade. There are those who think that the move was a false one, but I think otherwise. When the history of IHIJ conies to be written, it wilt ixave to be admitted that the Home trade for once miscalculated the whole tendency of the market, and has since had to pay dearly for so doing. Bradford seems to have been entirely by itself in not having pluck and confidence to buy in Australia alongside their Continental competitors, tne result being that now trade is better, or rather consumption larger, tho majority are faced with light stocks and are unabJe to take advantage of tho recent rise in prices. This week a large spinner and manufacturer put the raw material in one category and piece goods in another. He said there was no harmony between the two branches of tho trade, and was beginning to think that instead of selling for lower prices, wool was going to remain on a permanently higher level.

ADJUSTING VALUES. I am convinced that the best thing for Yorkshire spinners and manufacturers to do is to re-organise their idea of prices. No doubt it is very easy to say this, it being far more difficult to carry out such a good intention. | My only regret is that Bradford has made such a huge mistake in selling big weights of raw material as well as partly manufactured goods at low prices, and then having to cover at a sensibly higher basis. The more I come into contact with the raw material and of the trade, the more I am convinced that wool itself is going to remain on a higher level of values than the trade as a whole has been accustomed to in days gone by. It will no doubt be dimcult to get accustomed to this order of things, but as I have repeatedly stated, h very powerful factor has been introduced into the wool world with the placing of raw materials upon the free list in America. It is quite true that its population of well-night a hundred million people have had to be clothed in tho past, but'if one-half begins to wear more woollen goods, it will make a vast difference to the position of values, and it 6eems to us to be absolutely useless to expect 64's tops to again come down in the neighbourhood of 2s, arid 40'b to 12d, unless the trade is to experience a landslide such as took place towards the end of 1907. I am beginning to think that the trade will have to calucuate an average price for 64's tops in the future around 2s" 3d, and 40's at 15d. I repeat that it look? to mc as if the whole industry will have to re-organise its ideas, and when shaping its future programme must calculate that wool values will remain upon a permanently higher level than we have seen up to tho present. RAW WOOL IN GOOD DEMAND. Conditions at the wool end of the trade must be described as fairly healthy, and I find the demand is on tho whole good. However much grumbling may be heard about the unprofitableries of tops and yarns, I have to acknowledge that wool is still satisfactory, and evidence is accumulating that Bradford users are prepared to buy considerable quantities of both merinos and cfosbreds. It will not be long before the trade assembles once more in Coleman street Wool Exchange, and a fair offering will be seen. From the arrivals already to hand i£ is evident that two-thirds of the offerings -will be crossbreds, and this should give West Riding users a fair innings. No one need have much doubt as to the attitude of the majority of firms in this district, for I am expecting merinos to be in very keen demand, and crossbreds will also do well. At the moment I do not think the big weight of New Zealand wools which will be available will prevent Bradford topmakers and spinners from being big buyers, and I- have every reason for saying that the majority of topmakers will avail themselves of the opportunity of purchasing considerable stocks. Some are complaining about prices being so high that it is dangerous to speculate, and no doubt that is correct. Still, on tho other hand, we have to face the fact that stocks in consuming quarters are fairly light, and many firms are committed to a fair share of forward business which

will necessitate them buying fairly big weights. If there were any prospect of cheaper wool no doubt it would affect the attitude of many West Riding firms, but I have to admit that to all intents and purposes all prospective supplies are ear-marked, although the present standard of values is not liked by practically all buyers. Some are asking whether if they hold off they will do better, and frankly state that they have to answer in the negative. Many people feel that it is useless delaying purchasing till later in the year, for there is to-day no reliable evidence that cheaper wool is going to be available for some time to come.

MERINOS CONSIDERED VERY SAFE. The trade of the past week has naturally been interfered with by holidays, but for all that considerable business has been done, far more than

appears on the surface. • America is

still an important factor, and business is not by any means negligible. I have to admit that topmakers are not at "all keen sellers, for the simple reason that they do not want to have to go to London with more filled order books and be compelled to buy at the best price possible. A personal talk with n»any firms shows that the majority hays enough tops disposed of for the time being, and no party is at all keen to sell, not even at the price which they are quoting. Some 'firms are deliberately asking figures which they know they cannot realise, and they are doing it purposely to keep at bay several of their customers. I doubt today if 2a s|d would be taken for average 64's tops, id to _d more being firm ouotations. A still better top ts quoted as high as 2s 6_d, but of course this price cannot be made to-day. although more than one bet has been made that it will be realised before the London sales begin. Whatever tendency is seen in merinos is undoubtedly in an upward direction. The business in Botany yarns is certainly spotty. I understand that some fairly decent orders have been placed this week among the biggest spinners for fine counts out of super 64's and 70*8, and 80's tops. What does it mean? Is it a fact that American manufacturers are coming to Bradford

for high-claes yarn to produce highclass fabrics, or what? Another question arises, are* American „ domestic wools sufficiently fine and sound to enable United States spinners to produce very high-class worsteds and woollens? Of course, where these yarns are wanted a spinner can get nis price, am told on excellent authority that those who have sold have been able to get as high as 2d per lb more than among English users of the same yarns. These facts show distinctly which way the tid« is running. - CROSSBREDS STEADY AND FIRM. Turning to crossbreds I cannot find a great deal that is now. It is too much to affirm that no notice is being taken of them, for I hear that there is part Continental enquiry, and in a quiet way there is more demand generally I find that spinners to-day, as well as shipping houses, are more disposed to bid than they have been for the past ■three weeks, and some make no secret of their opmion by stating that they J fully expect a fair measure of business before London opens. On the other j hand, topmakers are not at all keen i to 6ell, in fact they say candidly that ' ,they prefer a quiet market so that they can go to Coleman street with a prospect of getting wool more in harmony with Bradford prices. If the full truth were told, the majority of firms are sold far enough ahead, and want no more ton business, preferring to buy a fair weight of wool first. I do not think there is a firm in Bradford who has lifted as much crossbred wool this season by a thousand bales as they did a year ago, and because of "that they will have to buy fair quantities at the next London sales. The Continental enquiry is mostly for medium crossbreds. but the significant feature is that fine crossbreds ' are moving in sympathy with merinos, and 1 as far as one can see 50's to 56's wools will be dearer at the ensuing sales. The position of spinnens does not show much change. Many are finding it to be a struggle to run their frames, more through a lack of particulars than orders. Still, in the aggregate we are faced with a considerable consumption, and that being so we believe the future favours a maintenance of to-day's prices. THE MAY SALES. Many of your readers will be anxiously looking forward to the London May sales, where there is going to be a big weight in New Zealand wool available. Already 120,000 bales are to hand, and probably 5000 bales more will arrive before the list is finally closed. Like many more I cannot think that brokers will offer such a big weight of crossbred wool unless prices are maintained at fully last saleslevol. As one Bradford buyer said yesterday, there is nothing to induce sellicng brokers to hold over wools with prices where the*" are to-day, and, of course, it will all depend upon them being maintained whether any weight will be carried forward. Probably 20.000 to 30.000 bales will be held over for the July auctions, but that remains to bo seen. There is nothing whatevar to indicate a bet-back of more than 5 T>er cent, in even medium crossbreds, which will bulk the largest. Everything -ooints to fine crossbreds making id more, or at least selling ur» to tho highest point, of last series, for such wools are growing scarcer every year. Taking all things into consideration, I regard the outlook as favourable when viewed from a Now Zealand sheepman's standpoint, and with both wool and sheepskins being dear, including fat lambs, pastoralifits cannot but be doing well. Business at this end is not so brisk as one would like to see, although consumption is fairly large. At the same time, I favour a continuance of healthy manufacturing conditions, particularly when viewed from a consumptive standpoint.