THE FALLING BIRTH-RATE.

Press, Volume LX, Issue 11505, 11 February 1903, Page 6

THE FALLING BIRTH-RATE.

A leaflet issued by the Deputy-Registrar-Gtneral direct* attention to the persistent decline in the birth-rate of this colony. It is, m he rightly says, "a subject which "should claim the serious consideration, not " only of the statisticians, bat of all "thoughtful people." The array Vot figures brought forward to illustrate the djedine .is convincing, and not' a little disquieting. In 1880 New Zealand had a birth-rate of 40.78 per 1000, the highest in the Australasian Colonies. Since then there lias been a gradual but persistent decline. By 1900 New Zealand's birth-rate had fallen to 25.60 per 1000, the lowest in the colonies. The following year it rose to 26.34, but in 1902 there was again a faUing-off, tie birth-rate for the year being 25.88. Concurrently with this decline, there has been a steady rise in the marriage rat* during the last twenty years, and a large increase in the number of married women at child-bearing ages. In 1878 there were 50,995 married women between the ages of 15 and 45, and the birth-rate wu 3J7.2 jjex 1000 «f tfaate married woaen, ,

In 1901 (he number of married tween the ages ipecified had 79,406, yet there wen only 2000 births, and,the birth-rale had 243.8 per 1000. In.other word*, fe One married woman of the age* every three gave birth to a child, 1901 the rate was one in four only." * *Il| 11 This it a matter of the utmoit to the future of the colony, laetead the number of "births increasing growth of population, it tends to practically constant. In New Z«*Wd, Iq» M\jm some twenty yean, the number of has remained about 20,000, while. population during the same period creased from 500,000 to 800,000. Segar, of Auckland, in a paper publiehedStijpil the "Traneactions of the New Zealand stitute," has »hown what the effect ccfcstant birth-rate must be upon the lation. If it continue* it must bring a practically stationary state of the population in a comparatively short An annual number of births equal, 20,000 'will produce a population about 1,110,000; unless the birth* uUftlj crease in numbers, the population be expected to become stationary wh«n HfS reach*! that figure, except so far aa i> aided by immigration. For a young try, tequiriog a large population aodj jarge proportion of young people In to attain its full development, the. wt*\Jß look, it will be admitted, to a serious One remarkable effect of an approximitaly"'!! constant annual number of births ready apparent in New 2ealand. In thirty-two yenrs up to 1896 the tion aa a whole increased by but the number of people between., ages of 50 and 55 yeara was doubled, i&$M the number between '55 and 60 abouV} trebled. It is to be expected that the'eW'% ber of old people will for many years eeiOj tinue to increase at a rate greatly ia *>t any likely rate of increase population "as a' whole. It !■ that with a population of no le£| 1 than 120,000 of these, or 10.8 per oeß.il\%| would be old people of sixty-five y*ai»' oSJg ; o\-er. Unless the annual number of increases we mutt eventually expect )S|j|| only a stationary population, but 'cnej S which one person ia every ten is agtdfj 8 "The possibility, , * as Professor*Segar i "may continue to astonish, but there'<**)j 9 "be no room left for incredulity."- 3sj>\*| 9 same forces are at work in other partvjpf ,| 9 the world besides New Zealand, and |#t,| I have a similar effect, Can it be 1 population of- the world is approacaJßf"»v| B stationary state, and gradually I down into its old age? ' !^. n^S