Bay Of Plenty Beacon Published Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays WEDNESDAY, JAN. 19, 1949. ELECTION LOOMING

Bay of Plenty Beacon, Volume 13, Issue 43, 19 January 1949, Page 4

Bay Of Plenty Beacon Published Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays WEDNESDAY, JAN. 19, 1949.

ELECTION LOOMING

Though still ten months away, the coming general election is becoming one of the prime topics of conversation wherever people meet. Both Parties are tuning up their organisations and intensifying their propaganda, with the knowledge that this is likely to be one of the hardest fought campaigns in our political history. At the moment, Labour holds office by a majority that even the Government’s most ardent supporters must realise is precarious and there are in the present house 16 seats, 9 National and 7 ‘Labour, held by majorities of under! 500.

Locally, thdre is no noticeable activity as yet, though both parties are known to be working steadily preparing the ground for the campaign proper. However, with the sitting Member, Mr Sullivan, not yet back from his tour overseas, and with the Labour candidate not yet selected, one can expect little ( real activity for a while. At this juncture, it would be hard to pick a winner. Even Mr J. A. Lee, with his inside knowledge of politics and political campaigning, refrains from making a definite prophecy in his ‘'1949 Predictions” published last month. Here is a little of what he says on the subject:

“Prices will not fall in 1949. Nevertheless the nonsense being talked about shortage of goods at present is dangerous. A withholding of credit or of an increase in purchasing power could precipitate a per-id of slack business which wa M endanger Labour at the po r s. “Labour will hold to 95 per cent of its vote. That will not be enough. With a long period in office a party loses a marginal vote. A loss of 1000 to 2000 votes in each city will end Labour’s tenure. At present Labour would lose.

“Labour’s propaganda is dull, its shock.troops no longer young; indeed the crutch is become a political weapon. Labour could win, but an election as unimaginative as 1946 will see the critical margin lost. If Nationalists denounce import selection they will antagonise every manufacturer; if they talk cuts in public expenditure the civil service will take to its heels, and unless they can progressively and not immediately end rent control, of-

fice, shop and factory tenants will vote for self-preservation and Labour). “Only from the left can that cohesion be restored which will keep the Labour machine in power. The best one can say of the general election at the moment is to leave the issue open,” Mr Lee, of course, might have a not unnatural prejudice against the party that kicked him out, and has a traditional antipathy to the orthodox financial policy of the other side.