FARMING AFFAIRS

Bay of Plenty Beacon, Volume 11, Issue 66, 13 August 1947, Page 6

FARMING AFFAIRS

FEDERATION VIEWPOINT

This column is supplied weekly by Federated Farmers of New Zealand. The information given is official but any views expressed are those of the Federation and are not necesarily those of this newspaper.

Although explicity stated as being expressed in monetary values which had increased because of higher prices granted by the United Kingdom, the recent table of exports for the past year published by the Government last week appear to be wrongly read by many members of the public. The impression has been created apparently that New Zealand exports have reached a particularly high figurg and that indicates to some that all is well in our overseas trade, and so the Dominion is sufficiently well insulated .to withstand outside economic repercussions.

There has too been a recent statement by the chairman of directors of a national business organisation that bears examination. He claimed that talk of decreasing farm production was ridiculous and he quoted some unsubstantial figures to prove his contention that the present apparent wave of prosperity in New Zealand was real and lasting. It is as well, therefore, to examine the actual position in detail—and from details extracted from official statistical publications. And these statistics are tonnage figures of exports, not the artificial picture of inflated currency returns. According to the monthly Abstract of Statistics, compared with 1938 butter exports to 1946 have decreased by 28,900 tons and cheese by 4800 tons. On the meat side there have been increases. Beef has increased. over the same period by 9600 tons, lamb by 42,300 tons and mutton by 27,200. Pork, of course, being closely related to dairying has decreased by 16,900 tons. The total meat export figures including veal and other minor products show an increase of 62,200 tons. The broad picture, therefore, is that meat exports have increased at the expense of dairy products. That decline is highly disquieting and shows that the return to the dairy farmer is obviously unbalanced in relation to the other returns. But meat consumption in New Zealand is strictly rationed for the purpose of increasing exports. The over-all production picture, therefore, is not as pretty as the export figures show. It must be remembered that this analysis applies only to the years 1938 to 1946, a period of intense food shortages overseas and a period during which the New Zealand farmers made an all out effort to meet as much of that demand as possible. That effort by reason of continued shortages of labour and materials quite apart from psychological factors is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain. Without a more sympathetic treatment of the economic aspect of New Zealand farm production, it would seem that a period of general decreased farm production looms ahead. Wool, of course, has shown for 1946 a tremendous increase 'over 1938 for the very obvious reason of the release of wartime accumulated stocks. In 1938, New Zealand total exports of wool were 121,100 tons, in 1946 they have sky-rocketed to 163,000 tons. And small seed exports have increased in the same period from 2274 tons in 1938 to 7525 tons in 1946. But that export trade has recently been enjoying temporary advantages which by reason of the United Kingdom’s heavy earlier purchases might not be retained.

The decline in dairy production is particularly disquieting for it is of pre-war origin. A further examination of official statistics show that in 1933-34 our butter exports were 141,294 tons and our cheese exports were 84,542 tons. Over that period, however, meat exports increased to make the total a satisfactory one. Apart from the dairying decline and that must persist because of the drop in the dairy cow population of 183,000 since 1935, the constant drain on the second and third class hill country in increasing meat and wool exports is equally disquieting. It would seem that New Zealand faces a crisis in that field of production. Over a half a million acres have gone out of occupation in the last 25 years, and because of constant deteriorating in recent years, the marginal land situation is depressing.

An overhaul of national policy with emphasis on the rebuilding of our dairy herds and the re-instate-ment of farming to its previous pinnacle of importance is obviously necessary in New Zealand. Our soil is shallow in depth and cannot meet undue demands for increased production without sympathetic treatment.