MORE DROUGHTS

Bay of Plenty Beacon, Volume 7, Issue 52, 29 February 1944, Page 6

MORE DROUGHTS

1942-48 A DRY PERIOD

PREDICTION BY DR. C. ABBOTT

Droughts each year until 1918 arc predicted by Dr. Charles G. Abbott the secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, U.S.A., according to A. W. Haslett, iti his book, "Unsolved Problems of Science."

Ln a chapter devoted to "Our Weather Cauldron," Haslett refers to Dr Abbott, as follows: —

*'Ift is also certain that the sun's eyele has definite and -well-marked effects on happenings on the earth. Shorter wave-lengths can, for example, be used for Trans-Atlantic radio reception when there arc many sunspots than when there are few; and both the frequence of magnetic storms and of the beautiful Northern Lights appear to be governed by the sunspot cycle. There is 110 doubt therefore of the sun's power. The.only question :is to Avhat extent the sunspot cycle can legitimately be connected with world weather. The most convincing proof that there is some such connection is provided by the water level on Lake Victoria Nyanza in Central Africa. Here weather and sunspots seem to move in perfect step, the highest level of the lake corresponding with sunspot maxima and vice, versa. I|t also seems that there arc. on average, more thunderstorms over the world as a whole, when there are most sunspots and that the connect tion (is most clear!}' marked in Siberia, the tropical Pacific and the West Indies. Dr Charles. Abbott, the secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, lias also attempted to make use of a twenty-three-year cycle, otherwise a double sunspot cycle. One of his examples of recurrence of weather after this interval of time is drawn from Central India. Sun Affects Weather At lirst sight it certainly looks suggestive. There, between the years 18(>i) and 1870, three winters of heavy rainfall were separated by usual 'droughts, and twenty-tlu-ee years later the same weather appeared. On the bas'is of this coin-> cidence Dr Abbott has predicted that there, will be similar droughts be-. twe.cn 19-12 and, 19-18. Similarly, on the strength of Nebraska weather reCords, he has predicted a dry period in central United States between 1939 and 1948.

"It may be that Dr Abbott's lorecasts will be fulfilled,. But all that is generally agreed is that changes on the sun do have some effect on the weather. However interesting some of. the supposed connections may be, it would be idle to pretend they had so far proved; of any appreciable value of the weather fore-7 caster. The sun seems to have a much more direct influence, on the upper layers of the atmosphere, in which the Aurora shines and radio waves arc reflected, than on the lower layers from which our weather comes. The. sun's cycle is not itself of. definitely fixed length, and its connection with world weather happenings appear to be unreliable. Much of the same criticism appl'ies to, other supposed cycles, whether by themselves or used in combination. Ifn some cases the cycle may appear to be real, but its influence is so small as to be useles for practical purposes. In other cases what appears, to be a regular rhythm will follow a regular course over a considerable period of years, only to disappear suddenly and without warning when any meteorologist is rash enough to base a forecast upon it.