'GERMANY WOULD LOSE'

Bay of Plenty Beacon, Volume 1, Issue 63, 18 September 1939, Page 6

'GERMANY WOULD LOSE'

HER CHANGES CONSIDERED AN OBSERVER'S VIEWS In the July issue of Harper's Maga zinc, Willson a Canadian economist and lecturer, considers Ger many's chances in the wai\ which has since arrived. His conclusion is embodied in his title "Germany Would Lose."' His personal qualifications for speaking are high; his anticipations accord in, a very remarkable degree with what has .happened in tlie few months since he wrote, and the grounds for his conclusions are not uncomforting. They may b c summarised as follows: — (1) The combined strength of British and French 'planes approximates closely to the German strength, estimated at 6000. Anglo-French 'plane production, quoted as 700 'planes per was due to overhaul the German peak this (Northern) summer and to continue if necessary to the 5000 'planes per mon'-h of November, 1918. (2) Barcelona has exploded the [ theory of terrorisation from the air ! —even without some of the finest and fastest defensive craft in the world. (3) Even if a crushing air a'ttac!; succeeded in iFrance, all the evidence is that neither in numbers nor quality could the German tanks exploit the situation. (-1) In the resultant war of attrition Germany must fail because: (a) She has adequate reserves neither in spirit nor material to sustain the offensive. (b) The German army is no longer "the gleaming precision instrument'' of 1914. It has been, impossible in six ytars for Hitler to build his officer staff j or give anything but the sketchiest training to his reserves. (c) Owing to the new technical demands of army service, and despite extensions of territory, German authorities calculate on only 6,000 000 for the field, against 10000,000 in 1911. (d) The German, Navy is much weaker than it was in 1914, relatively and absolutely. (5) In resources (subject now lo some contingent support from Russia), Germany can get no nickel, rub ber, cotton or wool even from the occupicd Danubian which she would probably have to garrison to obtain anything. "The whole oil resources of Roumania could satisfy only one third of Germany's Avar needs.'' "The iron mines that carried Germany through the last war lie behind the Maginot Line in France to-day." (6) Germany's greatest weakness is morale. This is of the 1917, not 1914, vintage. Defeat, starvation, occupation, inflation, slump, unemployment and revolution have demoralised the spirit of the nation. To complete the picture, add embittered and tortured minorities. Woodside's analysis is an interesting background against which to read the morning cables.