TRADE PROSPECTS

Bay of Plenty Beacon, Volume 1, Issue 5, 1 May 1939, Page 8

TRADE PROSPECTS

''NOW APPEAR BRIGHT" GENERAL ECONOMIC TREND AUSTRALIAN EXPERT'S OPINION Trade prospects for the first time in two years now appear bright, in spite of jittery talk about national self-sufficiency in various countries, says j\lr Colin, Clarke, economic adviser to the Queensland Government and director of the Queensland Bureau of Industry, in Economic News, the bureau's official organ. European political anxiety is masking the general economic trend, 'which 'continues upward", he says. For Australia, the upward trend of international trade, if continued, will mean another era of very marked economic expansion like that 1 <)()() to 15)26. During February there was a rise in tow of the most important British economic indexes —employment and exports. The Bank of England appears to have been exercising pressure to keep interest down. British steel and car production are recovering from 1938>'s low levels EFFECT OF SPENDING. With large Treasury borrowing likely a substantial improvement in trade find commodity prices in Great Britain seems inevitable whateverhappens in Europe, predicts Mv Clarke. Summarising information from Great Britain and the United State*, it seems tl\t the depression which began in both countries in August, 1937, bottomed in June, 1938, in the United States, and in January, 19'W in Britain. The critical factor in world recovery to be watched now is the trend of international trade. In t!rj four largest trading countries, Great Britain. Germany, the United Stateand France, there appears to have been a marked upward trend during the last few months. Other quotations from Mr Clarke's remarks are: if the recoilt depression comes to an end after a downward movement of only 17 months it M'ill not be the shortest ou ieeord. Depressions be., g'nning in 1900 and 1907 lasted only 1,1 and 11 months respectively. But the shortness of the 1937 depression, if substantiated, confirms the con., elusion that the world is now entering upon a long period of upward trend of commodity prices. Tn Britain. France. Germany, nrd the United States there appears to have been a marked upward trend during the hist few months. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IMPROVING This evidence all goes to show thnt the prospects for international trade for the first time in I<> y ears now appear to be fairly good in spite oi windy talk. The upward trend of international trade has been instrumental in helping the world out of the recent depression, and for the immediate iuture at any' rate its prospects seem satisfactory. i It is reasonable to that, verv soon economic activity in the United States will be restored to the 1937 mavimum. Tf this cond tion is rea'ised, the market prospects for important Aus. Indian exports will be very good, •ind the long period upward trend in commodity prices now anticipaie<l will lie* iiwav to :i Uoml start.