SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 1040 JAPAN'S EXPANSION.

Auckland Star, Volume LXXI, Issue 225, 21 September 1940, Page 8

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 1040 JAPAN'S EXPANSION.

I his week s events suggest that •Japan lias resolved to have her way with 1' rerich Indo-China, risking opposition by the French and retaliatory action by the United States. The Japanese want to gain a foothold in Indo-China in order that they may more effectually prosecute their war against the Chinese, and also because they regard Indo-China as part of the Asiatic region which should be their sphere of dominating influence. It is true that they have informally agreed, with the United States and Britain, that the! status quo of French Indo-China and the Dutch East Indies, both of which have been cut off from their homelands by the war. should be preserved —but if, as seems probable, they are able to secure the assent of the French authorities to their demands, no doubt they will assert that their action is consistent with the agreement. That the French authorities will, order forcible resistance seems unlikely. They have apparently exhausted all diplomaticmeans in an endeavour to delay or deter the Japanese, but the real question is whether any foreign Power is prepared to aid them. The answer, fairly obviously, is that only the United States could, and the United States will not.

There is talk of economic retaliation by Washington, and from Tokyo more talk, to the effect that the Japanese may attempt to forestall the effect of such action by moving into the Dutch East Indies, too. Both reports are unconfirmed. Remembering the sanctions campaign against Italy, we must remember that it then beeame apparent that if the Powers applying sanctions were determined that they should be effectual, they had to risk war. Similarly now, if the United States contemplates economic action, and is determined that such action shall be effectual, and not a gesture, she must be prepared to risk war with Japan. There is little to suggest that President Roosevelt and the American people, now engaged in an election campaign, are prepared to take any such risk. They are prepared, perhaps, to take action " short of war." Japan well knows the importance, to her, of that qualification. Her Government is aware that the United States has never "recognised" Japan's occupation of Manchuria, but no dire consequences have followed. If, now, she has resolved on the first act of her " southward expansion " programme, she has chosen her time slirewdlv.