Science.

Alexandra Herald and Central Otago Gazette, Issue 421, 12 May 1904, Page 2

Science.

.';.*.'■■':' r - ', —j—i Ja'v >' - I ■■• j THE, FORETELLING OE DISEASE. MO*JOME time ago in the course of these aitioles I devoted one or two Safal papers tb the considoration of the , symptoms of disease. I tried to show, what might,be .denein the way of prevention "by: an earfly dkepvery of such a disease as tuberculosis (or consumpfcioD), gout, rheumatism, and like troubles. In this light we saw very distinctly how the early recognition of these seiioiis troubles 'meant in our hands'of a large amount of power, not merely of arresting them at an' early period, but also of saving naturally much painj misery and expense, to say nothing of the risk of-death itself. To-day I propc s> to. say. something' about a kindred matter.. If it can be shown that certain diseases' 'aiet' more % prbvalent at Borne saaaonaof the year .than others, such in-?; formation should naturally place us oa our guard against the ailments in ques-' tion. It is the old principle here of ' torewarned being 'o earmed/ Health science, is capable of pointing-but certain very important duties. which we owe to our- * selves in the way of disease prevention, founded uponakaowledgeof what maybe caJ led the periodicity of disease. In other words, wLen we know the period of the year or season when diseases are more likely to attack us than at other times, we may naturally be prepared against the invasion of the enemy

Some op the Facts. Yeas ago certain," very interesting researches were carried" out "by Dr.- A; ; Buchan and Sir Arthur Mitchell, M.D.V regarding the periods when certain disieases, mostly ef infectious kind, were prevalent. These periods naturally coincide with the highest death-rate from the affections' in question. Certain other observers have also devoted much attention to this subject, so that we are to-day in possession of a very large amount of information concerning what may be called the seasonal variations of many important diseases. Many of ray readers may know that wo can make a chart of

, of diji&Stee by dewing a line, dividlag thiß line into 12 equal spades corresponding to the twelve mfathe of.th«jjfeM..|:l| we aajSjaßie that the mean or average oS tha disease, then pfthetjciae os^§»l feeldw^theVjtitraight "lineH; we can baow -respectively the maximum and the minimum developments of the trouble. Take the case of emall-pox, for example. Both in London and in Sweden, there is much more small-pox prevalent; from Number to May of each year than &pm May to, November. That thia inJfußiott is correct ..was proved by taking xfie Bmnll-pox' curve from London for thirty years during 1845 to 1874. This curve practically ;■'■ confirmed the general opinion regarding the greater prevalence, of emall-pox darisg the period just'"men-'" if, on, the, etherjband,,: yecometo s consider measles, we find that thia disease [ prevails mostly during the spring and the autumn quarters of each year. But measles is an extremely curiouß disease, because it flhowe first of all a minimum in February and March, a rise in May, June, and July, a; decline in August, September, and October, and a rapid rise in November and Oecember, -carrying us onward to January,'at the end of which month'the 'curve "goes, downwards, 'indicating a cessation of the disease, coogh; is prevalent during the fifjst five months of the year; during the latter seven moathsit f alia to its degree. This represents sot merely the curve for London, but also that of England at large;" Bat in.„ New YotkVwe find'that, whlhit whooping-cough is more prevalent during the first five months of the-year, ■ v it also ha'a.a rise in August and Septeuiber.'lßilißg again in October, 'Sfovemberi'.and ipbemher, ,:'■ Fubthbe Evidence. ■ln the case of eoarlet. fever we find this disease reaching lis highest point of development from September to the end of the year. In the months from January to - August scarlet fever does not prevails In |'New York, on the other band, Boarlet fever 'exhibited an exactly opposite development in Lqhdoß. I add that.we aeleot with its "mil: lions • qf. population, as an example because' a country JnitseJii HoWj in New York scarlet fevers ia very prevalent from January to Jane, irons July to. November it is at its lowest development, but begins to rise.in the last month of the 'year. "Typhua fever, in respect of its seasonal development, is ah extremely ourious disease. Speaking generally, it prevails from January to .April. It is -not so prevalent in May and June. It attains an average development in July, ! Binks in ! August and September, rises somewhat in October, and is rather- below the abovo average m November and December. The explanation o£ the greater occurrence of thiß fever in the earlier moatfea of the year will probably be found in the fact that, as it occurs amongst the p00r,,, poverty stricken, 1 Over-crowded, and dirty ehtms of cities, the conditions there represented fire more likely to be found! in the voider, months. of.„the. year, than" i summer, months. "Typhoid fever,'; on the ' other hand, is a disease iwhichhas a very ! definite and well-marked curve.- The rAmeridaiSß call -thiß disease Mall fever/< because its typical development is in the autumn season or fall of the year. We are. therefore,; at the. present time | coming what may r Hbefe sailed the typhoid-seaaon?--In January"and February the typhoid curve is about the average, but it falls from March until the; end of August, when it rises,,, remarkably from* September to December onwards, ft* 1b probable that this curve may be explained. on the ground that the germ of typhoid fever .finds conditions under which it may Soafish fthdTgrow better adapted for it-uf the autumh ? tnen in tha earlier months of; the year.-—Dr; Wilson, London.