EAST ASIAN PEOPLES

Ashburton Guardian, Volume 70, Issue 108, 20 February 1950, Page 6

EAST ASIAN PEOPLES

ANOTHER YEAR OF SURPRISE COMMUNIST ADVANCE SINGAPORE. As East Asia heads into a new year of trouble, Britain’s leading istrategists here are preparing for an accentuation of the political offensive from Communist China. These experts who have a box seat in the Asian political setting are convinced that ,soon or late China’s red leaders will lift the curtain on their expansionist aims. The test of 1950 is whether they will need force of arm® to achieve their objects. Many observers feel that the fundamental policy point in the Red plan to control South-East Asia is to instal prp-Communist governments in the various countries by means of political infiltration.

First to come under pressure, they say, Would be Siam, Burma and Vietnam which produce the rice which feeds millions of other parts of the region.

Malayan defence planners are busy working out the capabilities in a territorial war of the vast Chinese Communist Army which has now probed to the southern border of China and, virtually, is without a foe. Latest estimates are that the Chinese Reds have 2,500,000 fighting troops backed by hundreds of thousands of security police.

Official circles here have received no indication that any part of the army is being demobilised. It is the consensus of w r ell-informed opinion that the Chinese Communists, whatever their long-term aims may be will not be in a position to launch an effective military offensive during 1950. Competent judges point to the fact that the war went too fast for the victors in China. ! The economy of the country was disi'upted and now hag to be built up again with pin-pricking interference from the Nationalist blockade, fairly large-scale bombing, and the inevitable discontent and political instability in many centres. Famine is facing some areas while the economic blood transfusion of foreign trade is being held back.

Russia in Manchuria

It is generally accepted that Russia will not be in the position to replace commercially what China has lost through the cessation of trade with anti-Communist countries. Then there is the question whether. the Chinese leaders will submit to dictation by the Kremlin. Even if they do not, official sources point out, Chinese Communism itself Avithout backing from Russia constitutes a serious threat to East Asia.

Some observers consider that Russia is beginning to fear that Communist China will prove too difficult to handle as a mere satellite. The Chinese leader, Mao Tse-Tung, they point out, would wield considerably more power t 119.11 Marshal Tito, the Yugoslavian truarft from the Kremlin camp.

For that reason, according to reports, Russia is losing no time in gaining control of North Manchuria, outer Mongolia and Sinkiang as a safety vacuum.

A tour on the map with experts at this Asian listening post leaves the impression that the first six months of 1950 may give valuable clues to the political fate of several of the wavering countries in south-east Asia. In Vietnam (the coastline of which, appropriately enough, is a question mark turned turtle) the final phase of what has become known as the Bao Dai experiment will get under way in the new year. French Transfer Powers

The French have transferred powers to the Vietnam Government headed by the ex-Emperor and it remains to be seenSvhether the genuine Nationalists will now fall away from the Communist-dominated Vietminh and rally round the French-sponsored government. » Meanwhile, Moscow-trained Ho Chi Minh controls the larger part of the land territorially, but the French and Vietnam forces are intent on winning back the rice-growing and coal-mining areas which count economically.

The French are counting on the threat of Chinese Communist troops on the Tonkin horder to win support for the Bao Dai regime.

Many Vietnamese, they feel, will disagree with the Vietminh policy of claiming the Chinese Reds as comrades. The Annamite people are traditional enemies of the Chinese. Meanwhile, the French are urging recognition for Bao Dai. They attach importance to international support for the new set-up, but some observers consider that confidence in the French promise of complete independence is the major consideration.

Everybody except the Communists admits that the French armed forces have to stay in Vietnam at present for security reasons. There is still doubt, however, on the French intentions. Competent observers expect the situation in Vietnam to clarify itself in the next six months. The position in Siam is reported to be deteriorating.

Marshal Pibul Songgram, the Premier, committed his Government a few months ago to a strong anticommunist stand with the idea of encouraging arms and economic support from Britain and the United States. This aid has been trickling in from Britain, but Washington has not been co-operative.

Dismal Reports from Burma

With the growing belief that effective backing from the anti-Communist bloc is not to be relied upon, the antiCommunist policy is being moderated. Reports from Burma are dismal, but they indicate that the situation can becmne more dangerous if the present Government, a Left-wing coalition, go more Left-wing with the Marxist-doc-trine Socialist Party gaining complete control.

One high< official who recently studied the position in Burma first-hand commented: “The only hope for Burma is for the Government forces to make peace with the Karens.” Views on 'lndonesia vary. There are pessimists here who say that the United States of Indonesia will be another Burma by July. Temperate optimists consider that the situation will stabilise itself.

Most observers agree that the Corn-

munist threat in Indonesia is not a serious one. They point out that a return to lawlessness and 17th century religious % fanaticism in the country would be* more dangerous to SouthEast Asia than a Communist political State.

The authorities in Malaya are aiming a knockout blow early in the New Year at the Communist forces which have been terrorising the country for one and a half years. But even if it turns out to be a king hit, observers say, the menace of Chinese Communism is very real in Malaya at present where more than half the population are loyal to China.