THE FUTURE WAR.

Ashburton Guardian, Volume XXXVI, Issue 3565, 27 September 1916, Page 3

THE FUTURE WAR.

A FORTY MILLION ARMY

VIEWS OF A RUSSIAN GENERAL

In the columns of the " R.usskoe Slovo," General A. P. Skugarevski indulges iii some interesting speculations on the changes in future warfare presaged by the present conflict. It is impossible, he writes, precisely

to divine the issue- of the present war

We may guess, calculate, hope, even be convinced, and nevertheless nobody can say for certain how the presort world-war will terminate.

But at the present time it is possible fairly accurately to imagine the picture of the next war after this. The smaller the. success achieved in tho present war by the Entente Powers the sooner will the next war occur. If Germany is 'not conclusively conquered, if Europe does not secure real guarantees' against a. recurrence, of what William 11. has done and is doing, a. fresh war will inevitably take place in 10 or 20 years. Tho _ new. war will be, like all wars preceding it, "an unprecedented war"; it will'be a, war in comparison with which the present war, which will then be a war of the past, will seem child's play, as many now deem the wars of tho past century. Armies of Forty Millions. In a future war, in 10 or 20 years, we may expect that this will not be the easo; humanity must at last learn how to prepare for war. In tho future struggle of nations all men capable of bearing arms will be taken into the" ranks of the armies, and for them everything will bo ready in peace time. What kind of army will Russia then have to establish ?. In Obuchev's "Military- Statistical Annual," Buniakovski's distribution of men and women according to age is cited. Althougji these figures are old, tho relative distribution of ages has not changed, as the latest information of the Statistical Annual of 1914 also shows. According to these figures, it appears that out of the total popula- | tion of the State males from 20 tc 1 45 constitute 17.8 per cent. But the experience- of the present war has shown that both younger men from 17 to 19 (3 per cent.) and older men from -!.G to 50 (4 per cent.) are called out for service. Consequently by fully ' exerting their strength a State can call out for war up to 25 por cent, of its population. Excluding a fifth for sick and incapable, we may say that tho armed .strength of a State in a future war will constitute 20 per cent, of the population of" the country. In 10 years the. nnnnlatiou of .Russia will exceed 200,000.000: but in Germany it will not have reached 1.00,000.000. Cnnsp.mently in R.ussia more than 40,000,000 men will be called .out,for war; in Germany fewer tlimi 20.000,000. ' , The strength of an army is determined not ,alone by its numbers, but the quality of its discipline, organisation, training, equipment. . etc., not to mention tho ability of its loaders. The. present war has only confirrfied this old truth. J will not enter into details , of organisation—the^e form too special a qnestion; I will refer merely to a few figures. Conscription cf Officers and Women. -'■ For an army of 40,000,000 not fewer than 300,000 officers will be required. To create such"«: corps of educated officers, and not hastily-trained subalterns, out of volunteers alone is wholly impossible. It will bo necessary to introduce conscription for officers; all young men who have received not even complete middle school education will be obliged to serve as officers. In an army of 40,000,000 thore will bo from 25.000,000 to 30,000.000 infantry, 1,000.000 to 2,000,000 cavalry, about 5.000,000 artillery, about 1,000,000 sappers and technical experts of various kinds, and about 5.000.000 for rear duty—staff, administration, parks, transport, hospitals, and various economic institutions.

With, the army will be as many as 100.000 guns, 1.000,000 maxims, tena of thousands of motor-cars —armoured, freight, and light cars. By tho beginniiig of the war at least '50,000,000 gun projectiles must bo prepared, and 0,(100,000,000 cartridges. Besides ma-chine-gun detachments, each company of a regiment will have its portable machine-guns on light stands. Aviation will receive special development in tho future war. It is clear that in 10 to 20 years'every State'will reckon the number of its dirigibles in thousands, and "the number of .its aeroplanes in teus, if not hundreds, of thousands. .

Feeding of the .future- armies will demand enormous means. Reckoning only 21b of bread or biscuit per day per mail, for an army of 40,000,000 2.000,000 pouds (32,000 tons) will be neodod daily, for the triiuHport of winch 100 trains will be employed, and iiirnost the same nnmbor for the transport of a single day's tinned floods. For the moat- ration, rc-crkonuig a pound per lu^ad per (h\y, and ■ the nvf-rare woudit of oattl^ ft 50 iiouds. if tho" war I'isl.v a van- 20 000,000 head "I: cttlo will be rfio'iirecl. And in Rus'-ia, if catt'o-breediiu-: does not devoloti and nMiiainr-; in the same ratio to tl"> po^ul^ti'^H ;i=: rmw. tb^'"? will

v.h™ 'no only fiO .000.000 Load of cn.ttio in the country. Tluu-. ono and a-hnlf •■>!• twrv vf>ar« o1" witi* will r>x])ivtisfc'nioi.'O tliiui linli' of tli'- ci'ifuifcit/y. The Cost. The expenditure on tb<j iirrnv during the ir.tniv. wi.il rcjich 200,000,000 roulfu-'s (;C20,000,000) a day: thus si month. ol: w;rr will demand not les.' tlitin fivn milliards, and a year 60 milliards.

In tinio of peace .Russia- will have to maintain 2,500,000 to 3.000,000 troops, which will entail an expenditure of not less than I* 1,000,000,000 roubles (£100,000,000) annually in the State Budget. The ro-nruling of the army with now rifles will also require not less than the same amotmt; while the introduction of now • artillery may cause an outlay of several milliards of roubles. How much money will be needed for the renown! of material after the present- war, for the replenishment of military, alimentary, and property supplies for the. new war it is difficult even to estimate; probably disbursements for these purposes will be reckoned in tens of milliards of roubles. Payment of interest on the State loans now made will call for not less than two and n-half milliard roubles (£250,000,000) annually.

Preparations for tho future war will entail such an exertion of the economic and financial strength of the country they will affect such, a number of intricate questions, concerning the activity of many—.not to say all—departments, that they will bo beyond the power of any single. Ministry. It will be. necessary to create a new Gov-

■eminent organ—a Ministry of _\\ ar Preparation. Besides .tho existing material .conscriptions—military, transport motors—it may be necessary to introduce conscription for grain, meat, and fodder. All industrial establishments —mills, factories. workshops, even handicraftsmen —oa declaration oil war will have to work for the army in accordance with a special plan of mobilisation. A future war in 10 or .20 years \yill bo unprecedented in comparison with prwious wars. Expedients for the extermination''of .humanity will be of such a nature that everything, of which 1 \ye hear 'nowadays.'will pale in comparison.' The number of killed will be reckoned by, millions, of wounded by tens of millions.. If such a war shoulfl hist more than n year, then no meai sures of " man-breeding" whatsoever will, save the State from a. reduction of the population, from the ruin and impoverishment of entire countries, from literally unbearable taxes and duties. And, nevertheless, this war will be inevitable if Germany is not conquered, and Europe does not secure herself by ,'iuarnnteps against what is happening in our time. Germany must pay, not only as the authoress, of the conflagration, but as an example to other, ambitious parties in- the future. When Germany has boon subdued nobody will prevent the States by a universal treaty from limitintr their armmvoirhs and from introducing militarism within certain limits, for which Russia made n proposal at The Hngne C'buferorcp. An-international tribunal must at last acquire power. ■ . I