THE OUTLOOK IN EUROPE.

Ashburton Guardian, Volume VII, Issue 1774, 23 February 1888, Page 3

THE OUTLOOK IN EUROPE.

A French newspaper, " Le Paris," the other day very fitly characterised the existing situation m Enrope as a " lying peace " for while the lips of the diplomats of the groat nations are crying " peace, peace " there is war m their hearts. Tho whole Continent is a vast armed camp, and while Russia is massing her troops on the borders of Austria, all the central powers are preparing for tho coming struggle, the early precipitation of which seems well nigh inevitable. The clouds have been gathering long, and are now louring with a portentous ! blackness, to be broken only too soon we fear by the flash and roar of artillery — the lightning and thunder of battle, with its rain of blood. Naval preparations keep pace with tho massing of the land forces, and while Russia is suspending ordinary traffic on her railways to enable all their resources to be employed m theconveyance of her batteries, her infantry battalions, and her cavalry squadrons, to the points at which ere long the onslaught is to be made, she is at the same time using every exertion to strengthen her fleets for the approaching trial of strength with the navies of other Powers. Germany has long been ready for any eventuality, and shoulder to shoulder with Austria and Italy waits the event with a quiet consciousness of strength, albeit if it prove that tho triple alliance have to meet thie combined forces of Russia and France the struggle will be a tremendous one, and its issue doubtful. It is impossible at this distance to say absolutely what are the motives underlying the actions of Russia, but it seems to us to be most probable that she judges the present juncture a fitting opportunity of advancing a stage towards the achievement of the ultimate goal of the national ambition — the control of the Golden Horn and the possession of Stamboul itselt'. The Bulgarian situation is the stalking horse and the Czar's proposal for the deposition of Prince Ferdinand and his replacement by a Russian nominee moans that Russia desires to remove the last barriers to her acquiring a dominant position from which she can gradually close upon the prey she has for centuries marked out for herself, and as Germany has long been the strong man armed who has kept her m check, it is natural that she should look to France — Germany's natural enemy — as her own most probable ally. France has not forgotten Alace and Lorraine / and the hope of wresting those Provinces back from German hands would be a powerful inducement to her to assent to assist, as a quid pro quo, m the furtherance of Russian designs upon Constantinople Bismarck himself, the one man who has so long held the keys of the situation, declares that he is averse to war, and further hafe offered to assist Rusoia m obtaining that influence m Bulgaria which she desires by diplomatic means ; but doubtless he would only concede to her so much as he deemed consistent with the maintenance of the balance of power, which concessions, we opine, would fall so far short of Russian demands, that a final diplomatic solution would bo hopeless. At any moment a casus belli may be developed by any one of the Powers who are now making such threatening military preparations calling upon any other to desist, and by the refusal of such Power to yield to tho demand, and were it not for his desire to secure to the nonagenarian Kaiser a quiet close to his long reign, we believe that Bismarck would have made such a demand, and that its refusal would. have led to a declaration of war months ago. As it is, the Kituation, perhaps, hinges upon the precarious life of the Crown Prince, who is himself a strong supporter of peaceful counsels, and who, we fear, is doomed to an early and painful death. When that event takes place, as it may at any moment, there is every reason to fear that the shock would be fatal to the aged Emperor, and then would step to the throne m the person of Prince William a ruler, ambitious, and of strong military instincts, whose voice would at once bo found on tho side of the war party. In one way or other there is, we think, an almost certainty that a terrible struggle will soon be m full progress m Europe, and if wo read the cable news aright it would seem that England is not unlikely to be drawn into the vortex. That evidently is the opinion at the Horse Guards and at the Admiralty, for we repd that the Imperial Government is " arranging for the registration of horses available ior army purposes in' tittle of war, and intends to subsidise owners for the use of such animals," while all tho cartridge" and ordnance factories and the navy yards are working night and day m readiness for emergencies. It is earnestly to be hoped that the threatened danger may be averted, but we fear that tho chances are strongly m the opposite direction, and that we are on the very j eve of the commencement of the most i dreadful and sanguinary war of modern I times.