SIR C. DILKE ON THE POWER OF RUSSIA.

Ashburton Guardian, Volume V, Issue 1548, 3 May 1887, Page 3

SIR C. DILKE ON THE POWER OF RUSSIA.

HER ATTITJDE TOWARDS INDIA. The " Fortnightly Review " for March contains the third of Sir Charles Dilke'a remarkable series of articles on the European situation, the Power taken for trrm'ment this month being Russia. This paper is at once the mcstable, ioteresMog, and Important of the ■erics, and it literally dwarfs almost into insignificance the other contributions to the leading reviews. Of the position of Russia at this moment the writer says ; —

" Ruiela, In spite of her enormous debt and its tremendous annual ohargo, 1b growing m power, and that power, great m itself, gains by being surrounded by the terrors that encompass the unknown. She has by far the largest army In the world, and, with complete mobilisation of her forces, haa upon paper a fores at once of four and ultimately six millions of men Some are inclined to think that the men will not be found when wanted, but great progreßß baa been made by Russia since 1878. Hor artillery haa as many guns as that of Germany or of Franoe ; her cavalry is perhaps more numerous than that of France and Germany together, certainly more numerous than that of Germany and Austria combined This caraliy force is admittedly the best there is for that service to which cavalry m modern war is limited, if it ia not destroyed on osa. With moderate prudence the resources of Russia oannot but grow and grow; Russia from many points of view is a young country, and Siberia, territorially considered, is almost another United States. With her magnificent natural position, and with her unrivallad chain of fortresses upon the German frontier, Russia can always wear out German patience. It may be true, as Count Moltke says, that 20^,000 men upon the Vistula, along with the German fortresses, might prevent Rus.'ii from invading Germany ; but even m that case there would be 200 ODO men withdrawn from the French frontier jn face of a French army more- numerous than the Gorma'i, and they "would not suffice to prevent Russia from crushing Aostria or holding Austria m" check. It ia a curious commentary upon the repeated protestations of aflection wh'ch have passed between the Emperors of G.-rminy and of Rusß'a daring the laat few years that since 1870 Konigsberg has been converted Into an entrenched camp upon an ero mous scalo ; that the forts of Th >ra hftvo been iron plated and topped with iron turrets ; that D^nlEiic haa been gre .t!y ttrengttaned ; that Posen h»B been greatly strengthened ;. and thtt Custrin is being strengthened now, aa ib also Glogan. Russia, growing dally m military etrength, seta m tho scale aga'.nat the Germans more than Austria can bring to restore the equilibrium. It may bo confidently asserted that it Is n>w fa? too late for Germany to strike her passible enemies one at a time. For Germany *.o attack either France or Russia now would be madness, if not suicide, ani Germany will go on with her declarations of friendHneea towards Russia, although with a perfect willingness to see coalitions formed against the Northern Power."

Sir Oharlea Dilke admits tho responsibility assumed by anyone not a military man, who attempts to pronounae a confident opinion upon a subject regarding wh'ch tho obleit uoldiors d'ffar. Ho points out that English officera, as a rule, maintain the possibility of a formidable Rußdau invasion of India, while Russian officera ho.d tho contrary opinion, but forjigD military writers do not agree nltogothec with the latter. They maintain that forces advanoing from the Oxus and from the Caucasus would meet nt Sarakhs, and would eaßily occupy Herat before the English could have put 40,000 men at Quettah.

" It Is assumed, also, that the English concentration would take plaoe on the Helmund or at Candahar, and that the Russians could advance, without serious molestation either from tho English or Afghans, up to near that point. The Russian numbers m the Caucasus being practically without limit, it is assumed that, by the uso of the stoam tramway which they are rapidly making towards their frontier over a very easy country,, the Russians coald place any conceivable nnmber of men upon the Upper Murghab, where they would bo faced by an English foico of 80.000 men with 200 guns, at Oandahar, if, indeod, England can spare 200 guns from India and from England after the recent foollth redactions of artillery. Assuming that we were at war with Russia only, the troops would corao through tho Mediterranean ; but, if we were r.t war aB one of a coaiiti n with a coalition m which either France ot Italy was against us, this rout?' cnuld not be used, and they must come round tho Cape. If we were trying to hold E?ypt ngainßt France, the whole of these calculations fall to tho ground, inasmuch as the force which could bo o'.horwiaa be eont from England to India would have to be kept m the Mediterranean or m Egypt. The foreign > observers assume that th? native army is nob sufficiently trustworthy to allow those few regiments which are capable of fighting against Russ'ans to be sent out of India ; but, if the Gourkhaa and the best of tho Puojib cavalry were to be S9nt to Candahar, tho number of the army there must be diminished by an equal number of Brltich troops left m ladia to take care of the communications and of the ordinary Sepoys. The Russian army advancing from Balkh, which wouM bring with It light guns only, would occupy Caahmeio, and threaten the Pud jib sufficiently to require an increase m the Punjab frontier foroe m the garrison of Peahawur ; but the main struggle would tike plaoe m the neighborhood of Oandahar."

Sir Charles Dilke is disposed to ragaid those views of foreign wriiers as exaggerated, bel'evlng, as he does, that tho popularity of England among tho native princes ia superior to any that Russia m*y fancy she enjoys : —

" I doubt whether the Russians have more than a few hundred 1 urcoroan cavalry ready for a long march ; but, above all, 1 th'nk that RubbU would have, for a great number of years 1o come, far more difficulty m finding the enormous train which would be necessary for marching 11 0,003 men across from Herat to Candahar than we nhould find difficulty m supplying an army of 80,000 men at Candahar, which would be sufficient to hold iv cheok the advance of 100,000 Russians from the Caucasus and 20,000 from Turkoatan. The difficulties of obtaining camel?) and mules enough to move large armies m such deserts are largely, no doubt, money difficulties, but they are partly difficulties which even money will not mset, unless the mmey is spent for many yeara m advance m the formation of a permanent train upon an enormous Bcal<?. Real daßger to India can only come after gome revolution m Herat, or a dexterous uae of Ayoob Khan, has brought Russia there as a peacemaker, after yearn of poeaeealon of Herat Valley have restored it to its former fertility nndor irrigation, and Her fit has been made a secure basis for an advance, oonnectad by railway both with the Caspian and with Turkestan. Herat will doubtless be taken one day by a. auddea rush, for,

though something m the way of fortification has bean done' there of late, It la not properly protected by a sufficient number of detached forts, and cannot stand. But the end will not be yet. The present ruler of Afghanistan, m spite of his long residence m Ruesia, never was pro-Russian, and may be trusted In the event of a Russian invasion. He, If still on the throne, would aak us to supply his army with the newest arms, and would plaoe a large force m line with as at Glrishk or Oandahar, aa trell as do something !to defend Herat. He Is a powerful and able King ; but he has an I internal disease ; his* end may be hastened by poison, and iv any oase he fa not likaly to live long. Herat lies out of the Afghan country, and is an Afghan poßt, a litt'e In the air, which, with a ' mobilisation,' accomplished on foot, which takes six months, the Afghan cannot efficiently defend. Our troops would reach Girlßhk from England before the Ameer would reach Herat from Candahsr or from Oabnl."