The Ashburton Guardian. Magna Est Veritas Et Prevalebit. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 15, 1886. FARMERS’ PROSPECTS.

Ashburton Guardian, Volume V, Issue 1371, 15 October 1886, Page 2

The Ashburton Guardian. Magna Est Veritas Et Prevalebit. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 15, 1886. FARMERS’ PROSPECTS.

In view of the tact that there is this year a very much larger breadth of land under cereal crop, particularly wheat, than was the case last season, there is no question of nearly so vital an interest to every class in the community as that of the rates which grain is likely to command at next harvest. If only we are favored with good growing and ripening weather, and if there be a good yield and a safe ingathering, it will only need that there should be a good paying price to lift us all out of our difficulties and to bring back the sunshine of prosperity. There are a good many “ ifs ” in the case it is true, but, so far, the weathei promises well, and the brairding crops are looking healthy and vigorous, and there being thus every ground for hope as v to the work to he performed by the clerk of the weather, let us glance for a moment at the other “ if,” that as to the probable price, which depends upon other than local conditions. Victoria and South Australia report encouraging harvest prospects, and it appears likely that they will have a large surplus for export, hence we must look mainly to the Old World as our market, and this being so it being so it becomes of tne greatest possible interest to enquire what will be the probable state of things as regards supply and demand and the consequent probability as to the prices being good or bad. To begin with, it would appear from a recent paper on the subject, published in the Melbourne Argus, ' that the produce of wheat in the United Kingdom itself is likely this year to show a deficiency as compared with the previous year of no less than sixteen million bushels, and that Great Britain will require to import not less than 136, possibly as much as 160, million bushels. France, too, it is calculated will need from 41 to 54 millions and Italy, too, will be an importer. The supplies from Hungary, Germany and India are expected to be considerably below the average, and the exports of Russia will not, it is anticipated, exceed those of last year. Hence there would appear to be every reason to believe that the two conditions which make for high prices will both exist at Home viz., largeness of demand and shortness of supply. That is excellent news for New Zealand, and we are glad to see that the correctness of this anticipation is borne out by no less an authority than the Economist which, in a recent article on “ Wheat Supplies and Prices,” has the following very interesting and (from a New Zealand point of view) encouraging remarks:—“Unless India exports more freely than in the past year—and the quantity was the largest yet sent out of the country —it is not easy to see whence European requirements will be supplied. No doubt the supply will be faithcoining somehow, but not, we think, without some greater temptation in the way of price than is now offered. The South American crop is believed to have been greater than that of last year; but Australasia this year has no wheat worth mentioning to spare, and Egypt is said to be practically out of the export trade for the lime being. The United Kingdom alone will require to import between 19 and 20 million quarters to supply the consumptive demands of the popultion for the coming cereal year, and some other European countries will require to import considerable quantities. On the whole, then, we arc disposed to believe that the general belief in a higher range of values for wheat during the coming year than i.urlng the last, apd perhaps than for some time previously, is well founded.”