IS IT TO BE WAR?

Ashburton Guardian, Volume V, Issue 1534, 7 May 1885, Page 2

IS IT TO BE WAR?

Un-lur the above heading the St James’s Budget, of March 14, has the following remarks in reference to the Anglo. Russian difficulty. The present aspect of affairs gives some additional interest to the article:—While we write England and Russia are still at peace, and a strong opinion still prevails on the Continent that there will be no war. For this belief there are three main reasons: 1. That we are too much hampered in Africa, and must so remain for months to come: 2. That our Government are learning that the Russian preparations in Central Asia are very formidable, and far ahead of their own. 3 That the Three-Emperor Alliance (to which France is more or less attached now) forbids war between England and Russia, except at the coat of a general confligaration, in which the English Government must see that the Three

Emperors would Buffer least. It is also remembered that Midland is in the habit of giving way to every Russian advance The conclusion is, therefore, that there will be no war. One thing is certain : all the bases of this calculation unquestionably exist. There they are ; and as they are perfectly well known to every statesman and to every soldier student in Europe, it is the merest stupidity to deny them or to sh:rk them. The condition of military forces, the strength, equipment and present position of every regiment in the Queen’s service, are matters of public knowledge. Anybody who choses may learn dl about them,[to the last detail, from official reports and personal inquiry. To talk of informing M. de Giers on the subject is simply ridiculous. While cur own Ministers employ their days and nights over Redistribution Bills, Corporation of London Bills, and other electioneering dodges, it is to things like these that he and other Continental statesmen give their minds. So that when he reads in all manner of English newspapers that England is better prepared to defend Af ghaniatan than Russia to move a step further, M. de Giers turns with a smile from what he knows about our preparations to what he knows about his own. These are always shrouded ; they are always carried on in the dark ; and the English newspapers referred to evidently know nothing whatever about them. But they have not gone quite unobserved ; and anybody who chooses to read the St Jamis’s Budget of October 18 may learn how plain the Russian game has been ; what the Russian preparations are ; what pains have been taken to move up masses of men to the Indian frontier—as they are still moving ; and how utterly inadequate to cope with them are all the men we could muster, thanks to the absolute neglect of a Governmeat''which no warnings even from their own highest authorities ever touched. More yet may bo learned from those pages to which we make no present reference. But it is all matter of common knowledge to those who make it their business to inquire ; and the outcome is, that while the drat of the three reasons on which the foreign financiers base their calculations is glaringly true, the second cannot be contested as matter of fact. And the third is of very great weight. No doubt there are Englishmen who persuade themselves and try to persuade their fellow countrymen that Lord Granville’s apology has broken up the. Triple Alliance. The Skiernievioe understanding to which the three Emperors pledged their word has disappeared (together with the good understanding which Prince Bismarck told us the other day he had arranged with France), because our Foreign Minister has been obliged to apologise for what the German Chancellor fancied a particular insult. This is not politics, but mere gushing thoughtlessness, to say the beat of it. The Triple Alliance is what it was : a League c£ Peace : a peace (to quote the acoouut of it in a great German newspaper at the time) “ that goes forth not in angels’ garb, but armed—armed to the teeth. A Wbrd, and such a stream of fire would be let loose as the world has never seen ; and this being so nations and diplomatists outside the League will know better than to say the word.” There is a deal of

spread-eagleism ia this description, no doabt; bat, in extravagant language, it gives us the whole raison d'etre of the League of Peace, and thei Ber in financiers are not far wrong in calculating on it to avert war. It has often been said, and there iejno reason to douot it, that part of that understanding was that Riasia might do as she pleased in Central Asia without hindrance from Germany and Austria, which means that Russia has no need to keep a vast army on the frontier of those Powers, and therefore could spare so many more thousands of men for operations in the direction of India. But the understanding exists sure ,f too ; and it is to be expected that the moral pressure will be exerted. In what sense will it be exerted? The expectation is that the English Government will be persuaded to accept Kusaia’s terms, not only because of her preparations to enforce them, but because refusal, war, would instantly let loose the other Powers upon their own proposed advantages from the Alliance, What the end will be we do not prophesy. But we stand by the opinion we expressed last week, that the Russians will not re

tire from the positions they have lately advanced to, however much our Government may threaten Of comae they might possibly consent to seem to retire for a little while (to save appearances for our Government) but not without a secret understanding that they may creep back again when the storm has blown over. And wc still believe that no such arrangement as even *!?’? will be come to unless our Government undertake to stop warlike preparations, and agree to do nothing that would embarrass a further and final advance whenever Russia may choose to venture on it, Suicidal as consent to those terms' would bo, we are 1 yet inclined to believe that if the makes them an ultimatum they will not be rejected. But, finally, wa must again repeat that His Majesty may have no mind for negotiations at all; preferring to make the utmost, without further delay, of an opportunity that may never return.