CORRESPONDENCE.

Nelson Evening Mail, Volume XIV, Issue 227, 6 October 1879, Page 2

CORRESPONDENCE.

CAPTAIN EDWIN'S WEATHER WARNINGS. To tub Editor of the "Evening Mail." Sm— l waa a good deal interested in the correspondence which appeared in your columns during laat week re the weather forecasts whidi emanate from Captain Edwin, and was iu hopes that some more able pen than mine would have supplied your correspondent " li." with the information be asked for in your issue of the 30th of September, namely, the number of forecasts verified out of a dozen. With your kind permission I will endeavor to supply the itifortr.auon, but in a more extended form and in such a manner as will, I trust, satisfy " B." as to the value of the same. I may just say that my information is taken from the report furnished by the Marine Department to the House, and is for nine months ending June 3D, 1878— Captain Edwin beiug unfortunately ill for some three mouths during the curreucy of that year— the report for 1878 79 not having been received here as yet. Heturn No. 2 shows that the forecasts giving direction of wind were verified up to 91-3 per cent; the forecast of force of win i, -28-3; barometer movement, 86 4; the warnings are* limited to an area of 12 points of the compass, and the lowest force for which warnings are cousidered as being verified is 7 of the Beaulort scale. You will please bear in mind that the above percentage refers to warnings received iu Nelson ouly, and that the returns arc not made up by Captain Edwin, but by our local weather reporting officer, who has nothing to gaiu by oiuking the return appear better than the facts warrant. It will be observed from the above that the percentage of force of wind verifications is very low. This, of course, is easily accounted for when it is considered what a very sheltered nook we reside in, but if "B" will only observe the appearances a mile or two seaward and note the swell that frequently rolls up the bay he will readily understand how the warning may have been verified, although perhaps not a leaf may have beou disturbed in this quiet little spot. The direction of tbe wind is taken from the strata of clouds nearest the earth, and although uo wind may be noticeable in town, frequently the clouds are tiavelliug at a good rate, but the best criterion of any is the percentage of direction of wind and the barometer's movement and it must be gratifying to the officer at the head of this brauch of the service to find his warnings result as tbey do. I should like now to show " B." the mean average per pentage for the nine months for the whole polony, and I should like also to impress Upon his mind that this information ought tQ be considered as unbiassed, as the warnings are in all cases decided by the officers who receive them, amongst whom are many nautical men. Forecast of direction of wind 88-31 ; of force of wind 49 99 ; barometer movement, 77 56 ; forecast of sea movement 6877. I notice that at some stations the' warnings are verified to a greater extent than at others. At Hokianga, for instance, the average for the above period reaches :— i-irectjon of wind, ; force of wjnd, t>i*o--barometer movemeut, 82 9 ; whilst Westport only comes up to, in the above order, 718 25 0, 757 ; sea movement, 61*5. The Wellington evening papers publish a daily forecast, and have done so fot* the last eighteen mouths, it is also well-known tbat Commodore Hoskins, of H.M.S Wolverine, fre--o<^eatly arailed himself of information iu this regard, atid expressed huuseli as oeing well pleased with the results of the forecasts! I am afraid to go on lest you might shut my communication out altogether; I will therefore conclude by saying tbat I trust *** B " may be satisfied a? tp the value of the warnings, and that jf he requires further information on this subject, aiid it is in my power'to supply it, J vyjll gladly dq so. Jam, &c, Nemo. October 6, 1879.